Middle East · resolved market
Will Khamenei tweet again by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90bb427b8230fe0ef07e6d1a876ee9e8ee13fcf647326ee85abc4d978ff07732
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,850
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,850 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf747…7d29backed No | 20c | 1,009$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…a73cbacked No | 18c | 753$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.54 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…f215backed No | 22c | 555$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.1 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa756…b167backed No | 22c | 503$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.66 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.33per pick | 41cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x90ec…62aabacked Yes | 76c | 419$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.56 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed No | 24c | 419$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.56 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.5wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…b75ebacked Yes | 78c | 365$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.3 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca3…9546backed Yes | 78c | 356$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.32 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2e…fe02backed Yes | 78c | 337$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 4c | 298.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bc…10adbacked No | 27c | 166.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6d…2e82backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5b…dca3backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 74c | 90.14$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 161 | 73.9%119 W · 42 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7e…0332backed No | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa95c…39abbacked No | 26c | 75.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 74c | 72.52$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4712…99d1backed No | 44c | 68.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked Yes | 73c | 38.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 31?this page
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 10?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 14?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 21?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 5?No won
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 7?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.