Middle East · resolved market
Will Khamenei tweet again by March 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa24c6d48a832135149e125a30bf23456ec0917fc69fc54e18ac4193fba11512f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,392 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 1,800$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed No | 25c | 1,185$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.9 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…5909backed No | 38c | 931.19$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa71c…d0a8backed No | 23c | 883$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.09 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf747…7d29backed No | 26c | 779.61$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 7c | 659.66$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.57 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed No | 22c | 516$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.52 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…1c04backed Yes | 78c | 487$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.14 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…bd0ebacked Yes | 77c | 445$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.35 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6789…52f9backed Yes | 77c | 438$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.74 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 4c | 395.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 77c | 333$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.59 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bc…10adbacked No | 23c | 195.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97c7…db3fbacked Yes | 77c | 111.25$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…0c95backed No | 24c | 104$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe287…5a0fbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5726…10f5backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa323…2778backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 75c | 86$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51d…1578backed Yes | 77c | 72.72$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2be8…573dbacked Yes | 32c | 49.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1bf…a751backed Yes | 78c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.5wins | +0.23per pick | 45cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Yes | 78c | 15.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 84 | 82.1%69 W · 15 L | +11.8wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 21?this page
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 10?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 14?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 31?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 5?No won
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 7?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.