Middle East · resolved market
Will Khamenei tweet again by March 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fc8cba7cc06011dd02a09513a93b2184c3aef48a8be0c005241e89308bc9cc8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,503 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed No | 0c | 7,439$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 13c | 1,795$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.94 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xf53c…00acbacked No | 26c | 1,387$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.62 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x340b…f8dcbacked No | 4c | 1,153$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +7.8wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +202.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfc03…f66fbacked No | 4c | 999.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 5c | 812$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.32 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 17c | 784.28$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.57 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x647e…88c8backed No | 28c | 700$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed No | 21c | 604.35$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 102 | 26.5%27 W · 75 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf747…7d29backed No | 34c | 586.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6177…c22abacked No | 27c | 584$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.68 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a92…d2e9backed No | 27c | 572$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.44 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3c…a29ebacked Yes | 74c | 550$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebb…0614backed No | 28c | 542.85$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -12.4wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -50%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x79a1…2d87backed Yes | 74c | 469$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.94 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b63…bb9cbacked Yes | 73c | 411$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.97 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14d4…cc6fbacked Yes | 73c | 382$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.14 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +105.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xead6…911fbacked Yes | 74c | 368$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x163a…70a2backed Yes | 73c | 363$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.01 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -32%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa55b…857bbacked Yes | 72c | 352$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.56 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d6…bca9backed Yes | 72c | 348$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.44 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…a2f8backed No | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +8.3wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 75c | 300$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 80c | 264.08$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.92 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 72c | 221.99$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.16 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 7c | 184.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfa…f779backed No | 14c | 179.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bc…10adbacked No | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed No | 20c | 159.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked No | 28c | 135.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 104 | 35.6%37 W · 67 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 68c | 133.69$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.53 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…c203backed No | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xda0c…2d9dbacked No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8969…fe89backed No | 25c | 78.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 27c | 71.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5691…c593backed No | 19c | 69.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7e…0332backed No | 34c | 59.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe86b…9371backed Yes | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 74c | 29.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 71c | 26.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4712…99d1backed No | 52c | 21.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 14?this page
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 10?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 21?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 31?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 5?No won
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 7?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.