Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Bilytske by February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb6d7bf43b87e5db6649b1f21b675e2fbda4decd80466427592d300b974789da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $298,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $312,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $298,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 319 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 49c | 39,872$19,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,254.2 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed No | 2c | 10,008$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 71c | 9,720$6,864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,856.84 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 56c | 6,627$3,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,916.5 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 5,930$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.5 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes | 38c | 5,864$2,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,620.59 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 29c | 5,862$1,718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,143.53 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f0…e266backed No | 2c | 5,173$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 77c | 4,404$3,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,397.79 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 19c | 3,873$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5d…014bbacked No | 4c | 3,541$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes | 76c | 3,216$2,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.08 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe1…e68cbacked Yes | 36c | 3,200$1,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,048 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc96…1b94backed Yes | 68c | 3,000$2,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955.34 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…2fa9backed Yes | 58c | 2,998$1,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,252.17 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…ded7backed Yes | 61c | 2,691$1,646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.42 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4271…da24backed No | 71c | 2,594$1,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,833.22 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4341…b193backed No | 63c | 2,583$1,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,619.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f14…905dbacked No | 7c | 2,578$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…7c02backed No | 16c | 2,556$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.93 | 94 | 75.5%71 W · 23 L | +10.9wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x25f9…fb6abacked No | 8c | 2,530$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 73c | 2,493$1,823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.48 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x861b…d8cabacked No | 7c | 2,322$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 74c | 2,200$1,634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,633.96 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 10c | 2,174$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.79 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 69c | 2,035$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -27%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a4…a4babacked No | 1c | 2,024$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe713…3cf2backed No | 2c | 2,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6561…c074backed Yes | 29c | 1,954$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,382.61 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x935a…6235backed Yes | 32c | 1,911$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,293.55 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 34c | 1,849$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,228.25 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 30c | 1,833$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,285.46 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed No | 64c | 1,745$1,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,124.1 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…9144backed No | 4c | 1,735$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ea…1f05backed Yes | 78c | 1,698$1,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.65 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +4.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 71c | 1,696$1,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,204.16 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.8wins | -0.28per pick | 58cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 71c | 1,696$1,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,204.16 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 71c | 1,696$1,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,204.16 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d3…52b9backed No | 62c | 1,634$1,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,016 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfffe…4e6cbacked Yes | 74c | 1,485$1,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.64 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…a9b9backed Yes | 41c | 1,475$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 6c | 1,443$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.62 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ea…1043backed No | 78c | 1,290$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 1,250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76f2…5398backed No | 2c | 1,244$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4f…7039backed No | 58c | 1,219$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked Yes | 33c | 1,212$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.11 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7229…f5cabacked No | 1c | 1,179$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 33c | 1,153$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.38 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c18…a04cbacked No | 8c | 1,152$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.54 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 17cpaid | +187.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x253c…061bbacked No | 1c | 1,117$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked Yes | 35c | 1,100$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.8 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…89a1backed Yes | 32c | 1,089$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.57 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6beb…6ea2backed Yes | 21c | 1,074$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.02 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 22c | 1,055$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.32 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7727…15a4backed Yes | 67c | 1,039$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.37 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +5.7wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd27b…3966backed No | 15c | 1,025$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +107.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 33c | 1,010$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…8477backed No | 62c | 999.99$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.99 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4e…9e0bbacked Yes | 39c | 969.74$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.96 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 17c | 940$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.8 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 30c | 900$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41df…4b70backed No | 68c | 884.86$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.7wins | -0.23per pick | 58cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x165e…f5aabacked No | 63c | 863.8$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.85 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…c27ebacked No | 72c | 863.08$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.72 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6183…575fbacked Yes | 34c | 862.84$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.84 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 36c | 859.1$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.7 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked Yes | 62c | 859.04$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.19 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 43c | 857.33$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.74 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5930…236abacked No | 13c | 850$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 71c | 848$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.08 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked No | 71c | 848$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.08 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b2…e2b3backed No | 6c | 845.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 19c | 829.84$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.99 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 23c | 826.83$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.82 | 85 | 10.6%9 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 4c | 823.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed No | 11c | 800$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa22d…8861backed No | 6c | 798.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bda…7258backed No | 3c | 758$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 6c | 750$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…cca3backed No | 13c | 750$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +210.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…8e60backed No | 5c | 722.49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 37c | 677.94$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.09 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43c1…4611backed No | 7c | 659.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b6…3961backed No | 58c | 644.31$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.69 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eea…ba4fbacked No | 2c | 644.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 68c | 624.81$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.23 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdde3…e797backed Yes | 35c | 604.76$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 6c | 601.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9c…7728backed No | 2c | 589$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 6c | 584.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…4d1fbacked No | 78c | 578.7$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.39 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…f831backed No | 70c | 571.81$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 57c | 571.77$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.45 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x340b…f8dcbacked No | 7c | 550$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 10cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…b0ffbacked No | 3c | 549.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e0…4eb7backed Yes | 31c | 510.81$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.9 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed No | 69c | 505.16$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Bilytske by February 28?this page
- Will Russia enter Bilytske by March 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.