AI · resolved market
ChatGPT Outage by February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcca19b8caaa9f6eb2e7f0a348437866b5a107e0dc8598ddc0842148eb31db0fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,780
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,460
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,780 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1a7…b572backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52dd…d79fbacked No | 2c | 4,050$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 1c | 2,022$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…780dbacked No | 2c | 1,785$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 77c | 1,525$1,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.82 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed No | 7c | 1,385$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.41 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc7…a9ddbacked Yes | 33c | 1,363$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54d…8be1backed Yes | 56c | 1,343$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0d…d3adbacked No | 6c | 1,050$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 27c | 1,022$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.68 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -81%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5930…236abacked No | 11c | 750$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +31%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0726…a285backed No | 73c | 681.43$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…8d24backed No | 52c | 626.89$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5b…efeabacked Yes | 48c | 626.89$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6936…be97backed No | 68c | 587.06$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f76…1d92backed No | 68c | 571.29$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.33 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 25c | 527.91$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.31 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 31c | 520.64$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.68 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +19.9wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xe21c…5980backed No | 7c | 515.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked Yes | 18c | 510.17$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.99 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 25c | 472.79$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.34 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 10c | 460$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…cca3backed No | 16c | 450$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd27b…3966backed No | 16c | 450$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c53…e48fbacked Yes | 59c | 425.09$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…c9fabacked Yes | 55c | 392.81$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.81 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 52c | 314.17$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.03 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 31c | 299.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.33 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3d31…1ff3backed No | 76c | 214$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc27…cf52backed No | 78c | 193.47$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 35c | 179.78$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.98 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb70…8444backed No | 71c | 166.85$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.28 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 28c | 157.69$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.82 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…8739backed No | 72c | 149.62$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e9…d896backed Yes | 29c | 143.01$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.4 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 42c | 127.67$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.58 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 13c | 111.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 27c | 101.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.18 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed No | 61c | 99.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47ff…916fbacked Yes | 32c | 76.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.69 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 26c | 69.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.09 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +10.0wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 38c | 64.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.92 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2a…df66backed No | 19c | 57.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 30c | 57.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfa…f779backed No | 32c | 52.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb83…0570backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x676e…8aa7backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…c288backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed No | 51c | 39.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5691…c593backed No | 31c | 35.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eef…eacabacked No | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…96d0backed No | 59c | 34.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 76c | 30.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eae…200ebacked No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb66…5e13backed No | 66c | 30.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc205…eec2backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51c…f9f3backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f1…48a3backed No | 73c | 29.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa1…deebbacked No | 52c | 21.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47e7…7c61backed No | 67c | 20.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932f…fe5ebacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe0…192abacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.3wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3d22…d039backed No | 77c | 18.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked No | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…2640backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.