Middle East · resolved market
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd3156c9537be4494f31d2303c28a3eee9b685969d6fbfdbfea93de01b896085
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $354,578
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $284,679
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $354,578 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 236 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 17c | 25,215$4,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,174.21 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 11c | 24,951$2,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,725.87 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 14c | 23,359$3,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,206.27 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 15c | 8,380$1,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,258.8 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…2e44backed No | 3c | 7,695$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.11 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 5c | 6,762$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.66 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed No | 36c | 6,298$2,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,295.82 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1510…2402backed No | 0c | 5,978$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed No | 4c | 5,555$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.42 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcd56…ac76backed No | 2c | 5,507$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 24cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8d…3fb3backed No | 7c | 4,849$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.03 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718e…3ef9backed Yes | 80c | 4,621$3,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.22 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 0c | 4,362$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e6b…dca2backed No | 12c | 3,905$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.29 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213f…2dfabacked No | 1c | 3,745$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 13c | 3,305$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.91 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 15c | 3,151$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.07 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6608…35d3backed Yes | 45c | 3,000$1,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,663.32 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc649…2425backed Yes | 46c | 2,754$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,493.52 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9603…bbd9backed No | 7c | 2,701$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.55 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 10c | 2,692$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.12 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked No | 8c | 2,571$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.36 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed No | 5c | 2,523$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.14 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d4…8e51backed Yes | 39c | 2,326$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,426.3 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 17c | 1,973$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.82 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee2f…7677backed No | 10c | 1,766$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 1,750$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 39c | 1,646$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.72 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…8aaabacked No | 7c | 1,500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2822…3f0cbacked No | 7c | 1,498$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.48 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 50c | 1,482$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed No | 9c | 1,400$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed No | 3c | 1,375$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…a5d6backed No | 73c | 1,375$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.49per pick | 69cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3e…65e4backed No | 11c | 1,358$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…99c4backed No | 8c | 1,322$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed Yes | 46c | 1,319$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.21 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 11c | 1,251$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.91 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 16c | 1,246$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.78 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 13c | 1,230$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.9 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…62ccbacked No | 5c | 1,200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…af99backed No | 45c | 1,200$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.99 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f7…68fbbacked No | 12c | 1,168$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.46 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed No | 12c | 1,157$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.26 | 169 | 61.5%104 W · 65 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 5c | 1,100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa095…6040backed No | 16c | 1,100$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.75 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +14.7wins | +0.30per pick | 19cpaid | +257.5%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x01be…3855backed No | 6c | 1,050$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.59per pick | 13cpaid | +421.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x52dd…d79fbacked No | 6c | 1,050$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.16per pick | 12cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5b…7796backed Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f9…9faebacked No | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed No | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed No | 6c | 999.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 62c | 931.43$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.14 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2425…3dd1backed Yes | 54c | 926.75$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.75 | 121 | 39.7%48 W · 73 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 16c | 908.6$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.67 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…7005backed No | 7c | 901.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…a8ffbacked No | 8c | 880$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.1 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 50c | 831.5$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.23 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 50c | 799.99$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1360…2e9fbacked Yes | 46c | 797.13$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.13 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 4c | 760.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf75…3880backed Yes | 72c | 756.78$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.44 | 133 | 21.8%29 W · 104 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a9…5976backed No | 10c | 672.01$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.9 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc428…4738backed No | 5c | 667.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…0d1bbacked Yes | 38c | 626.82$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.3 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 600$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb4…1171backed No | 10c | 600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefaa…8716backed No | 18c | 600$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +10.9wins | +0.52per pick | 20cpaid | +297%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…cca3backed No | 18c | 599.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.5 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +12.5wins | +0.21per pick | 21cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bd…ceaabacked No | 10c | 596.86$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.97 | 215 | 37.7%81 W · 134 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked No | 10c | 581.15$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 242 | 24.4%59 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x409e…ad6ebacked No | 44c | 553.11$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c35…afa8backed No | 56c | 536.52$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.03 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…1c65backed No | 17c | 482$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -73%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked No | 21c | 472.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d2…0bc0backed No | 18c | 416.41$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.26 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a3…7feabacked No | 51c | 408.58$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbee8…5309backed No | 52c | 406.77$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…3ab1backed Yes | 45c | 400$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed No | 30c | 399.99$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.6 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebb…0614backed Yes | 54c | 391.47$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.98 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -12.4wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -50%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c5…5488backed Yes | 46c | 389.08$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.08 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8611…d28fbacked No | 13c | 379.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b9…0aaebacked No | 16c | 349.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +10.1wins | +0.50per pick | 20cpaid | +279.1%equal weight | 75+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x87d6…d1e7backed No | 5c | 338.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 39c | 335.33$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.55 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 50c | 320.77$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.78 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac0…5679backed No | 70c | 317.77$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…a586backed No | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa293…2c9cbacked No | 8c | 297.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 9c | 286.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 129 | 18.6%24 W · 105 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea49…cec1backed Yes | 44c | 283.88$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.97 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 32cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef5f…e090backed Yes | 72c | 279.56$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.56 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0f…e8dfbacked Yes | 38c | 260.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.07 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa244…8e63backed No | 19c | 258.06$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 115 | 31.3%36 W · 79 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…21b4backed No | 5c | 253.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca97…5409backed No | 10c | 252.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 152 | 38.2%58 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed No | 69c | 250.6$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.92 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 59c | 231$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.12 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.