TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Ukraine re-enter Novomykolaivka by March 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$133,772

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,772 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd7a4…1f80backed No12c12,323$1,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,539.33450%2 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+200.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2649…3366backed No0c11,603$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x130a…220cbacked No1c4,125$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b65…293ebacked No1c3,909$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.16650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57d0…85b0backed No3c3,642$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-60.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c8b…a211backed Yes41c3,592$1,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,114.487848.7%38 W · 40 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+44.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No1c3,291$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.72631.6%1 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick2cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e36…1920backed No1c3,278$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc96…1b94backed Yes57c3,000$1,703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,297.213100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+78.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x185f…3649backed No2c2,229$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.442828.6%8 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-41.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x056c…5066backed No2c2,033$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.652416.7%4 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-57.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No10c1,906$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.268510.6%9 W · 76 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No4c1,860$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.928711.5%10 W · 77 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c12…0fd5backed No25c1,412$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed No4c1,390$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59432.3%1 W · 42 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-73%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe287…5a0fbacked No14c1,300$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18480%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e26…2020backed No15c1,300$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.36616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-58.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No8c1,224$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.084719.1%9 W · 38 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-39.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No18c1,222$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.964117.1%7 W · 34 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b01…95a9backed No1c1,117$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.42714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-80.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No8c999.98$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No25c941.53$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2405038%19 W · 31 L+5.8wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+39.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa4a8…62c9backed No7c940.41$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No1c940.41$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.06712.8%2 W · 69 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-81.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No10c768.13$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.5526318.3%48 W · 215 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd7dc…b1d3backed Yes31c755$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.751258.3%7 W · 5 L+3.1wins+0.26per pick32cpaid+128.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No32c692.92$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.217232%55 W · 117 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd22c…287dbacked No69c678.84$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No3c662.9$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.999115.4%14 W · 77 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-60.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd054…7e38backed No34c600$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2044050%20 W · 20 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa1a5…d228backed No14c600$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8770%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5726…10f5backed No16c600$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.730%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3a3…8642backed No76c600$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick61cpaid+59.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb120…4786backed No9c586.2$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes37c578.75$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.6114750.3%74 W · 73 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xab4f…552fbacked Yes26c569.73$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.7312547.2%59 W · 66 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed No72c551.87$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.8724258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed No69c550$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.52560%15 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-4.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa095…6040backed No17c550$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.51216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe762…064bbacked No61c531.1$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.7911645.7%53 W · 63 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ff2…7c02backed Yes39c514.18$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.189475.5%71 W · 23 L+10.9wins+0.12per pick64cpaid+15.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x340b…f8dcbacked No14c500$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick10cpaid+93.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe50…6eb6backed No62c500$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.55352.8%28 W · 25 L+5.3wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+26.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No8c499.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421432.1%3 W · 140 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-72.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfeea…672cbacked No7c470.84$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed No14c455.89$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.873865.8%25 W · 13 L+5.6wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+38%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2be8…573dbacked No16c450$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7230%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes31c430.35$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.6811840.7%48 W · 70 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked No22c400$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881540%6 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+28.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No77c399.99$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.9926835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes26c368.07$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.4625311.5%29 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No67c310$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.193060%18 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes73c307.26$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.9939429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30d1…4525backed No72c305.57$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.228652.3%45 W · 41 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3098…f038backed No8c300$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf130…88ddbacked Yes33c298.25$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.344153.7%22 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41d3…3db7backed No6c250$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5523…f226backed Yes28c228.17$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid+19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x124f…0deabacked Yes38c216.57$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.272050%10 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x695c…10a1backed No23c216$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.52927.6%8 W · 21 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cbb…b278backed No7c214.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No65c202.61$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.5630837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No79c200$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15811741%48 W · 69 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-16.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xec8e…39b0backed No9c191.51$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1830%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x29a1…5645backed No60c162.74$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.776142.6%26 W · 35 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52dd…d79fbacked No13c150$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick11cpaid+201.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x02fd…c406backed No13c150$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed Yes35c137.6$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.756341.3%26 W · 37 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbab8…1b19backed No22c136.43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-59.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No71c129$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.2641736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3c50…22fdbacked Yes49c126.93$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.06475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+20.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe64d…5e09backed No8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33c8…52dcbacked No8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa598…2ff3backed No65c120$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.7450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5691…c593backed No28c119.9$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01b6…db89backed Yes28c107.36$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f68…756cbacked No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb913…22a8backed No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe485…f7eebacked No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+51.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe8c…ad4bbacked No61c100$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+85.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05c8…a2f8backed No13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1330%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cdf…5bc1backed No62c94.46$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bfa…f779backed No26c94.13$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9440%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x529e…33e3backed Yes38c92.11$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.11933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No63c86.53$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.517735.1%27 W · 50 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-29.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No25c80.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.217243.1%31 W · 41 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-31.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9a3b…c203backed No38c78.94$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94bb…c320backed No66c78.35$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.865754.4%31 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33fc…08f0backed Yes30c75.04$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.44333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f74…6e19backed Yes25c73.53$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.17333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+33.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25eb…0506backed Yes30c67.11$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.115100%5 W · 0 L+2.7wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+184.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc52f…0981backed Yes75c63.91$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.981346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6fe…b5d1backed No70c63.54$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.321631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed No23c62.61$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.54628.3%13 W · 33 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ab4…5c9cbacked Yes40c60.77$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.631060%6 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+113.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9453…1a48backed No54c55.83$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0b9…6048backed Yes21c52.23$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.2614150.4%71 W · 70 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c4e…b978backed Yes30c51.68$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.431145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick30cpaid+17.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes24c51.33$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3912225.4%31 W · 91 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe94a…0ff1backed Yes29c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.32646.2%12 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+31.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.