Venezuela · resolved market
Trump announces new drug boat strike by March 14, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x112bd2f7de8601cc4a319a2cdc468f2c76d80f5bf3c1050b33b664e61bfdbeb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,060
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,060 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c90…1775backed No | 38c | 10,067$3,825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,825.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e56…0833backed Yes | 62c | 9,512$5,897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,614.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dd…d79fbacked No | 3c | 4,050$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02fd…c406backed No | 3c | 4,050$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked Yes | 77c | 4,040$3,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.16 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc03…f66fbacked No | 8c | 2,600$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c88…06ebbacked No | 5c | 1,587$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe287…5a0fbacked No | 15c | 1,300$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +147.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 18c | 1,222$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.96 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5726…10f5backed No | 14c | 1,000$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +140.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa095…6040backed No | 16c | 950$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…a320backed Yes | 66c | 778$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be8…573dbacked No | 14c | 750$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +139.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 18c | 736$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +159.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 14c | 684.84$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.88 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 22cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed No | 35c | 674$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…7572backed Yes | 65c | 674$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…8cc1backed No | 37c | 621$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ee…9238backed Yes | 63c | 621$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x155e…cb08backed Yes | 62c | 555$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bc…43e9backed Yes | 32c | 444$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18fa…3730backed No | 68c | 444$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0caa…fb12backed No | 68c | 440$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…9134backed No | 34c | 391$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfe…6108backed No | 34c | 387$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f5…d7aabacked Yes | 36c | 362$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45ff…bab6backed No | 64c | 362$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec7…7d60backed No | 62c | 324.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc00b…2a79backed No | 61c | 269.11$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x673d…e929backed Yes | 32c | 262$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +283.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6565…089cbacked No | 46c | 218.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…a5b8backed Yes | 32c | 178$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +269%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed No | 17c | 169.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 11c | 157.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 38c | 147.04$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +166.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Yes | 69c | 144.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.53 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 40cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 57c | 108.06$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.51 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 124 | 25.8%32 W · 92 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 61c | 94.71$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +27%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 44c | 92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef6…4daebacked No | 36c | 82.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 59c | 80$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 41c | 77.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.73 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 31c | 49.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 164 | 4.9%8 W · 156 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x295f…211bbacked No | 39c | 42.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbef7…0b4dbacked No | 37c | 41.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked Yes | 55c | 41.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 36c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 38c | 38.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe503…5260backed No | 69c | 36.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa1…deebbacked Yes | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 61c | 22.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump announces new drug boat strike by March 14, 2026?this page
- Trump announces new drug boat strike by March 7, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.