Venezuela · resolved market
Trump announces new drug boat strike by March 7, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc8e885b8d8a00cbfa2ca9ee1d436dabf9210dca021a56163fa43231f6f9047c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,764 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 65c | 10,351$6,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,697 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 44c | 3,197$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,796.71 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 1c | 2,723$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe287…5a0fbacked No | 20c | 1,000$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +147.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 25c | 868$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.4 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…2020backed No | 28c | 800$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.69per pick | 32cpaid | +222.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 19c | 778$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +159.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…ab6abacked Yes | 31c | 756.4$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5726…10f5backed No | 21c | 699.99$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +140.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9d…a002backed No | 68c | 694$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 2c | 653.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed Yes | 32c | 626$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 20cpaid | +360.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed No | 76c | 588.04$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.03 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa095…6040backed No | 20c | 550$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be8…573dbacked No | 21c | 525$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +139.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 511.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 164 | 4.9%8 W · 156 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ab…e99cbacked No | 61c | 264.18$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7d…a315backed Yes | 13c | 252$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ceb…7fc8backed Yes | 13c | 252$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x295f…211bbacked No | 49c | 241.52$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc88…45d4backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 7c | 187.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 9c | 163.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 29c | 153.79$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52dd…d79fbacked No | 15c | 150$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02fd…c406backed No | 15c | 150$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed No | 47c | 149.59$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 27c | 132.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d51…6f1fbacked Yes | 21c | 130.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd223…2b92backed Yes | 9c | 125.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 19c | 86.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 51c | 76.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8497…a3b4backed Yes | 37c | 69.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed Yes | 32c | 68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…c8b2backed Yes | 26c | 44.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed No | 48c | 39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 43c | 33.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7dd…ff1bbacked Yes | 55c | 32.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad6…bf67backed No | 53c | 20.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6f…1f19backed No | 73c | 18.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf877…77e1backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump announces new drug boat strike by March 7, 2026?this page
- Trump announces new drug boat strike by March 14, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.