TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

IPO · resolved market

Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$235,223
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$226,434

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $235,223 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 271 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in IPO
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x17ce…beecbacked No58c9,666$5,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,624.77520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x33ef…c498backed Yes23c8,778$2,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,716.15250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+112.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6c3…eb07backed Yes45c5,885$2,639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,245.75475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No0c5,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick2cpaid+548.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa96c…d1c7backed Yes71c5,405$3,835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,570450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-32.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x402e…5d12backed Yes47c5,056$2,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,662.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+111.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9411…63c7backed No52c5,000$2,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,598.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47c1…825fbacked Yes13c4,277$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,732.58616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+30.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52dd…d79fbacked No2c4,050$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe57a…e196backed Yes80c3,355$2,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9faf…6efbbacked Yes23c3,071$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,371.05520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick8cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No25c3,032$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed Yes16c2,725$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,297.09333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick18cpaid+112.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e26…2020backed No11c2,550$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+85.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x02fd…c406backed No4c2,381$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes39c1,744$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.162626.9%7 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-47%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e13…a14cbacked Yes44c1,678$736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$941.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+76.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x679f…7976backed Yes52c1,646$851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$795.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+93.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No1c1,554$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.292334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-48%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x539d…0213backed No68c1,505$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,024.65922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-62.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No3c1,434$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.33147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+165%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1a5…d228backed No9c1,400$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes37c1,299$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821.03728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick18cpaid-17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cda…c2d1backed Yes27c1,251$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$908.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+264.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7577…8fb9backed Yes15c1,236$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,045.541010%1 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick5cpaid-35.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa172…b716backed Yes42c1,149$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663.33825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-54%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x95f6…dd39backed No60c1,140$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8d4…3ffabacked No7c1,100$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes40c1,096$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.851428.6%4 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-46.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd771…489fbacked No69c1,070$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$738.36250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19e1…976dbacked No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick1cpaid+4,900%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed No16c1,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16050%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5726…10f5backed No12c1,000$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6946…8560backed No78c966.28$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes31c938.56$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$648.223116.1%5 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No63c921.91$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.14850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+89.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No42c905.75$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.623250%16 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc251…894dbacked Yes44c851.78$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.26250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44aa…d1d5backed Yes12c814.45$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$718.68933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick47cpaid+22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No21c805$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.25185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick12cpaid-80.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a26…e1e5backed No56c800$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ec4…f4a4backed Yes52c750$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360825%2 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-55.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2be8…573dbacked No12c750$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed No2c731.26$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1382.6%1 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-70.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbe0…2aefbacked No78c716$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.61250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick78cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9174…6443backed Yes33c712.74$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cc5…bfb7backed Yes51c664$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+94.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No12c626.79$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.684829.2%14 W · 34 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x370a…baacbacked Yes43c612.46$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.463100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+143%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2180…5345backed Yes18c602.33$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+178.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No4c597.9$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.52500%0 W · 50 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes28c586.89$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.88650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3344…cabcbacked No6c570$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe105…2d89backed Yes40c570$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No3c556.04$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.87640%0 W · 64 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2721…325bbacked No74c548.52$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.5990%0 W · 9 L-3.5wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x2560…0b02backed Yes39c542$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.58560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed No4c517.04$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.811844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No56c509.99$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.593616.7%6 W · 30 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No2c507.33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.28610%0 W · 61 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3537…56eabacked No71c500$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeebc…8fc9backed Yes40c500$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick40cpaid+153.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa099…d81fbacked No50c499.44$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.6270%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb37b…5c51backed No80c494.27$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd04c…c640backed No10c492.55$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3760%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x098e…6fa2backed No33c490.91$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-54.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4181…de86backed No80c489.24$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09fe…76eebacked Yes21c463.43$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.091127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-31.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No67c459.71$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.793231.3%10 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No22c454.55$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x939b…9cd7backed Yes18c435.8$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.61922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f8e…21b7backed Yes50c424$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.35616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-66.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No17c407.24$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.43329.4%3 W · 29 L-4.8wins-0.15per pick24cpaid-82.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No63c405.08$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.271154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+133%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3eac…fe52backed Yes75c405$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.49333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-55.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3207…22d8backed Yes15c387.12$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.12333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+115.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8194…48a8backed Yes49c386$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.43250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No20c377.45$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.733923.1%9 W · 30 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4932…9c3bbacked Yes56c372.43$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3103…5ef3backed No17c360.95$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x054d…9d94backed Yes13c360$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick24cpaid+284.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5de7…540cbacked No23c350$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.03333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-56.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No12c345.54$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.611274.7%6 W · 121 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-83.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No16c343$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.881414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb295…d1e7backed Yes26c330.02$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.21616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a68…9209backed Yes23c327.79$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.12366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+102.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdae8…8c95backed No80c318.75$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06d0…cb2dbacked Yes27c318$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+265.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9cc…8961backed No51c313.35$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No68c306.5$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.49728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick54cpaid-47.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No51c301$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.948129.6%24 W · 57 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed No15c300$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-18.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d62…27e0backed Yes18c300$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2461100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa072…9e34backed No20c284.49$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85b8…c84dbacked No74c280$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.4812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.9wins-0.36per pick48cpaid-80.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7e24…a77ebacked Yes78c270$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54ae…e8ccbacked Yes75c266$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-33.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No37c236.3$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.012231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-51.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb1cb…2b8ebacked Yes77c232.15$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9228…e41abacked Yes50c227.47$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.74250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.