IPO · resolved market
Will Discord’s market cap be $30B or greater at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99cb0ec481c29fc27c79679f1081a56af1b08563ade39d8f312680c476a915d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $135,815
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $119,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $135,815 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xebaa…abacbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0658…a776backed Yes | 2c | 6,320$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 1c | 6,178$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.53 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 4c | 4,504$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.91 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4728…6426backed Yes | 6c | 2,347$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.76 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…0f89backed Yes | 9c | 2,016$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,930$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.87 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 7c | 1,900$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.73 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 1,711$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a41…79b5backed Yes | 1c | 1,683$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…ab5bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,592$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 7c | 1,299$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.59 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3b…5d31backed Yes | 4c | 1,266$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 3c | 1,252$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 8c | 1,050$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 7c | 725.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 705.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -72%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c49…8686backed Yes | 13c | 622.4$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 600$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 9c | 594.65$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 508.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08b7…7d6abacked Yes | 9c | 479$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd640…480cbacked Yes | 3c | 478.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8e…21b7backed Yes | 5c | 454.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…820cbacked Yes | 4c | 448.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x939b…9cd7backed Yes | 9c | 445.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3207…22d8backed Yes | 7c | 434.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +115.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 6c | 433.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 417.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 7c | 398.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 6c | 387.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 33cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 5c | 336.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -47%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 7c | 317.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…d1e7backed Yes | 10c | 300.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 6c | 300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 6c | 299.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 9c | 271.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf95f…f988backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 7c | 239$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18c4…e9c5backed Yes | 17c | 237.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa946…a679backed Yes | 7c | 229.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 223.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82a3…88d0backed Yes | 9c | 205$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbda…4faebacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 8c | 187.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac56…8f2bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Discord’s market cap be $30B or greater at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Discord’s market cap be between $15B and $20B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Discord’s market cap be between $20B and $25B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Discord’s market cap be between $25B and $30B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.