IPO · resolved market
Will Discord’s market cap be between $15B and $20B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9642c1d2f8064a19d2b433433314da1124f550bc6dd02e0b950661e1c7d4d18c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $144,753
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $121,082
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $144,753 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xebaa…abacbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9b…fce0backed Yes | 22c | 9,683$2,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,159.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…08ffbacked No | 78c | 3,735$2,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…52fbbacked No | 78c | 2,989$2,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed1c…cb97backed No | 78c | 2,959$2,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x782c…cf71backed Yes | 2c | 1,834$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ba…d22bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,716$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 11c | 1,714$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.44 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -72%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa939…2412backed Yes | 2c | 1,512$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 10c | 1,501$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Yes | 14c | 1,446$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 11c | 1,299$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.04 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 1,297$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.45 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 7c | 1,286$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.24 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70e2…5c64backed Yes | 4c | 1,077$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2721…325bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,069$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd477…12b4backed Yes | 19c | 1,054$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6c62backed Yes | 21c | 953$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 14c | 913.81$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.02 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x346b…3df4backed Yes | 16c | 883$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…18c6backed Yes | 1c | 878.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5f…01d0backed No | 79c | 878$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9af…59afbacked No | 80c | 878$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 872.47$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.72 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f3…80e4backed Yes | 12c | 854.34$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -67%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa31c…0f0cbacked No | 79c | 853$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…d593backed Yes | 13c | 771.29$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe149…27b7backed Yes | 16c | 710$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 12c | 700$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91a4…2a56backed Yes | 13c | 650$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c5…42a0backed No | 79c | 636$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…d81fbacked Yes | 6c | 624.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9263…87acbacked Yes | 21c | 620$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x064b…0996backed Yes | 12c | 600$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 14c | 588.58$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.96 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3292…0268backed Yes | 15c | 581$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb927…148abacked Yes | 11c | 569$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4d…2adbbacked Yes | 21c | 534.47$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…d1d5backed Yes | 13c | 493.02$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.87 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 16c | 490.93$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.29 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa172…b716backed Yes | 13c | 481.07$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -54%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70e4…c76abacked Yes | 21c | 476.95$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf19…dbdbbacked Yes | 9c | 474.14$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2a…a023backed Yes | 13c | 471$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8e…21b7backed Yes | 9c | 468.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d39…9b8dbacked Yes | 21c | 460$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1651…7494backed Yes | 16c | 459$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd357…eb57backed Yes | 12c | 457.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 7c | 449.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -47%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f89…5617backed Yes | 20c | 448.33$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d37…568dbacked Yes | 15c | 430$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x939b…9cd7backed Yes | 16c | 429.4$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.02 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 11c | 412.48$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d02…0734backed Yes | 14c | 410.24$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6822…219bbacked Yes | 12c | 407$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…fe52backed Yes | 6c | 405$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…d1d0backed Yes | 15c | 400$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a8…2fb3backed Yes | 11c | 392.02$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4728…6426backed Yes | 13c | 378.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af1…f930backed Yes | 11c | 368.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…4ac0backed No | 79c | 357$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 336.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c3…7dd2backed Yes | 19c | 334.01$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.24 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x95e6…cbe7backed No | 79c | 330$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x852f…3aaebacked Yes | 10c | 325.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 14c | 320$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac7…9f7dbacked No | 79c | 317$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…a32cbacked No | 79c | 303$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb9…d9dabacked Yes | 10c | 295.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf2…0150backed No | 79c | 290$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde73…d7d9backed No | 79c | 280$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e15…9468backed Yes | 20c | 251.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69bf…db10backed Yes | 18c | 215$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 80c | 210$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9113…6329backed Yes | 17c | 204.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8242…cb6ebacked Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccdf…b8a7backed Yes | 15c | 197.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd640…480cbacked Yes | 9c | 190.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…d1e7backed Yes | 14c | 180.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5227…4279backed No | 79c | 180$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15bd…e897backed No | 79c | 174$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7579…7c05backed Yes | 13c | 148.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 14c | 145.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…5c87backed Yes | 14c | 143.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 16c | 140.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…3926backed Yes | 17c | 140$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 15c | 136.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde63…46c2backed Yes | 17c | 131$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fad…ae2cbacked Yes | 23c | 130.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…8c45backed No | 79c | 130$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…d758backed Yes | 11c | 106.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa25f…2772backed Yes | 19c | 102.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4822…0de4backed Yes | 13c | 101.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2560…0b02backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44f7…14afbacked Yes | 15c | 99.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 17c | 98.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee91…093ebacked Yes | 17c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc1…5216backed No | 79c | 88.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x185d…4cb4backed Yes | 25c | 85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Discord’s market cap be between $15B and $20B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Discord’s market cap be $30B or greater at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Discord’s market cap be between $20B and $25B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Discord’s market cap be between $25B and $30B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.