IPO · resolved market
Will Discord’s market cap be between $20B and $25B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82ea8a008091fd42afc01c27f70f1fdaa9ce5204836dc136ab64aea2bbd0ebb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $118,071
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,071 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xebaa…abacbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc86…7d3cbacked Yes | 0c | 3,318$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 3c | 3,090$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.77 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,719$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…44e1backed Yes | 1c | 1,596$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x782c…cf71backed Yes | 2c | 1,585$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 3c | 1,558$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.26 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 12c | 1,299$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.01 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4728…6426backed Yes | 18c | 1,250$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.77 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde63…46c2backed Yes | 15c | 1,186$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.63 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,082$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 64 | 0%0 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,063$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…4442backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 8c | 897.92$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.61 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x273b…9a3bbacked Yes | 21c | 832$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 11c | 827.44$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.06 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -47%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf65…178abacked Yes | 14c | 812.21$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe43…bd9abacked Yes | 4c | 668.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56bd…e58dbacked Yes | 13c | 638.3$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03c…98cabacked Yes | 12c | 604.48$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafd4…19ffbacked Yes | 13c | 600$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd477…12b4backed Yes | 15c | 588.1$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 19c | 587.57$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.34 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd640…480cbacked Yes | 6c | 575.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c3…7dd2backed Yes | 16c | 543.54$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.79 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc251…894dbacked Yes | 14c | 524$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…d1d5backed Yes | 12c | 520.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.21 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d02…0734backed Yes | 12c | 496.54$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 17c | 489.91$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.26 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x840f…95a9backed No | 79c | 477$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…eb1dbacked Yes | 23c | 470$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8e…21b7backed Yes | 7c | 454$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3874…d903backed Yes | 13c | 447.49$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x939b…9cd7backed Yes | 18c | 445.4$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.42 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b2…62f5backed Yes | 16c | 412$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 16c | 405$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.81 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7149…64a5backed Yes | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x432c…17debacked No | 79c | 355$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 19c | 354.5$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.71 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 11c | 352.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2721…325bbacked Yes | 11c | 341$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa574…45d8backed No | 77c | 330$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2560…0b02backed Yes | 15c | 306.76$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78d4…6d31backed Yes | 12c | 303.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbb…add0backed Yes | 16c | 302.02$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 14c | 280$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 266.73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 14c | 255$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe0…2aefbacked No | 78c | 238.7$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…40c0backed Yes | 23c | 214.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…d1e7backed Yes | 16c | 200.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbda…4faebacked Yes | 11c | 200.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa67…6bc2backed Yes | 12c | 184.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8242…cb6ebacked Yes | 9c | 179.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…c336backed Yes | 12c | 176.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb2…c640backed Yes | 12c | 175$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.34per pick | 46cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes | 16c | 158.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…cbbebacked Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21bc…62d0backed Yes | 20c | 145.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…5c87backed Yes | 13c | 143.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e6…c613backed No | 77c | 140$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb981…c26cbacked Yes | 14c | 126.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…72c1backed No | 78c | 123.28$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd214…5fcdbacked No | 80c | 122$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 117.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a52…8db2backed Yes | 18c | 117$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 13c | 111.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e34…9434backed Yes | 17c | 106.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccdf…b8a7backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 13c | 98.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8194…48a8backed Yes | 17c | 98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee91…093ebacked Yes | 13c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 18c | 88.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf418…3beebacked Yes | 17c | 81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…f08ebacked Yes | 17c | 78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8193…a0d7backed Yes | 13c | 77.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 13c | 77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d42…6e4cbacked Yes | 19c | 52.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 77c | 52.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Discord’s market cap be between $20B and $25B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Discord’s market cap be $30B or greater at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Discord’s market cap be between $15B and $20B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Discord’s market cap be between $25B and $30B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.