IPO · resolved market
Will Discord’s market cap be between $25B and $30B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd58512cf94a0bece389afb6a955dde2cc0ffa045b7848339f14de858e052048a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $153,183
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $162,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $153,183 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes | 0c | 10,013$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebaa…abacbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 7c | 4,945$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.08 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b2c…5341backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb981…c26cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,847$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f9…d8adbacked Yes | 1c | 1,768$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bad…a3b2backed Yes | 1c | 1,713$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a97…074cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,658$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc72a…8143backed Yes | 1c | 1,559$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,433$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 7c | 1,299$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.66 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 1,062$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3207…22d8backed Yes | 13c | 929.47$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +115.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 851.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ce…ea7cbacked Yes | 1c | 815.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa172…b716backed Yes | 8c | 779.23$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.34 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -54%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1aa…298cbacked Yes | 2c | 626.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 12c | 621.96$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.53 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x388a…44bfbacked Yes | 7c | 500$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 7c | 475.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 5c | 452.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8e…21b7backed Yes | 7c | 444$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 7c | 438.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa865…fb87backed Yes | 14c | 438.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x939b…9cd7backed Yes | 13c | 435.8$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.09 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…d1e7backed Yes | 9c | 419.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4728…6426backed Yes | 7c | 410.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 409.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 14c | 409.34$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.19 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 7c | 390.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 8c | 360$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08b7…7d6abacked Yes | 14c | 344$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06b…452cbacked Yes | 9c | 336.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 6c | 298.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 9c | 285.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -47%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd477…12b4backed Yes | 10c | 280.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 11c | 255$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 8c | 253.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbda…4faebacked Yes | 13c | 200.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 198.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 10c | 191.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 33cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18c4…e9c5backed Yes | 13c | 154.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…5c87backed Yes | 9c | 143.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 9c | 134$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 14c | 114$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f7…14afbacked Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8127…cf58backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a21…d26abacked Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Discord’s market cap be between $25B and $30B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Discord’s market cap be $30B or greater at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Discord’s market cap be between $15B and $20B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Discord’s market cap be between $20B and $25B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.