IPO · resolved market
Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcebea053f03012c2f280c3bc86e5be4068a8dcc0ffbd43f41e43f9a26753f847
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $335,368
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $315,011
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $335,368 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 156 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x59e6…e206backed Yes | 17c | 104,502$17,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,242.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebaa…abacbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5c…22cebacked Yes | 28c | 9,577$2,682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,681.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 7c | 4,398$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.41 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde2e…2981backed No | 72c | 3,482$2,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7faa…fa39backed No | 72c | 3,138$2,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7a…8ad0backed No | 72c | 2,957$2,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…92b5backed Yes | 19c | 2,194$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 11c | 2,125$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.53 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4728…6426backed Yes | 14c | 1,848$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.88 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa634…ef90backed Yes | 14c | 1,556$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1615…8f2bbacked No | 69c | 1,470$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -52%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2721…325bbacked Yes | 35c | 1,389$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.88 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 22c | 1,299$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.46 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba43…25a7backed Yes | 14c | 1,293$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Yes | 16c | 1,245$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…0114backed Yes | 25c | 1,181$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 27c | 1,178$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.57 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -47%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb98e…6e6fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,145$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 927.7$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 29c | 868.04$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.08 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…18c6backed Yes | 13c | 865.63$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.56 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 12c | 852.13$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.05 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14d5…e5debacked Yes | 20c | 719.46$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 19c | 718.14$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.54 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a8…2fb3backed Yes | 56c | 657.21$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 25c | 640.47$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 78c | 632.14$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.3 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6501…5983backed Yes | 13c | 608$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…d1d5backed No | 79c | 604.21$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.67 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 71c | 594.33$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.18 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa172…b716backed Yes | 54c | 556.33$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.58 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -54%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f89…5617backed Yes | 9c | 555$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 529.59$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.17 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 498.79$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.24 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…bdcdbacked Yes | 12c | 484$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8e…21b7backed Yes | 22c | 469.31$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.57 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 22c | 466.88$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.02 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x630a…bdb7backed Yes | 15c | 461.42$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 14c | 448.4$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.76 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x939b…9cd7backed Yes | 24c | 445.4$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.3 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…4b09backed No | 67c | 443.22$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0f…a873backed Yes | 38c | 408.41$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…fe52backed Yes | 12c | 405$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 12c | 392$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a52…8db2backed Yes | 15c | 364$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 13c | 362$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1aa…298cbacked Yes | 14c | 360.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf649…21f7backed Yes | 19c | 323.91$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 73c | 315.16$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.65 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde63…46c2backed Yes | 12c | 303.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a86…5448backed Yes | 40c | 290$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe267…18dcbacked No | 67c | 290$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1768…897abacked No | 60c | 290$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x521f…28f8backed Yes | 33c | 290$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62c5…4600backed Yes | 22c | 272.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd357…eb57backed Yes | 50c | 262.11$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…c336backed No | 76c | 261$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61e8…78dfbacked Yes | 39c | 256.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7650…fac1backed Yes | 29c | 255$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…4442backed No | 70c | 247.68$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.01 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…1da6backed No | 71c | 240$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 67c | 236.88$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.95 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 47c | 232.91$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.3 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c3…7dd2backed Yes | 33c | 232.87$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.42 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4468…5168backed No | 80c | 201.18$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…d81fbacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 69c | 197.98$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…d1e7backed Yes | 28c | 196.46$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.69 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b91…e71bbacked No | 68c | 196$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x913e…157ebacked Yes | 32c | 196$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e4…ec33backed Yes | 11c | 190$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 32c | 185.31$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…0213backed Yes | 39c | 183$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.93 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb10a…5b24backed Yes | 43c | 180$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb22c…7057backed Yes | 32c | 180$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c1…61e9backed No | 68c | 180$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 76c | 158.8$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21bc…62d0backed Yes | 22c | 158.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e34…9434backed Yes | 12c | 151$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8055…6dd2backed Yes | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f46…6334backed Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe763…b3b7backed No | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7b…5c8dbacked Yes | 31c | 150$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a21…d26abacked Yes | 16c | 149.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ed…196abacked Yes | 13c | 149.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…5c87backed Yes | 36c | 143.79$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.34 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7579…7c05backed Yes | 14c | 142.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b5…ff5ebacked No | 73c | 141.66$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 55c | 135.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 131.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…34acbacked Yes | 15c | 130.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ac…afc4backed Yes | 15c | 127.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb2…c640backed No | 64c | 122.32$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.04 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.34per pick | 46cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f48…e69bbacked Yes | 22c | 120.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 19c | 116$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7c…cf4fbacked Yes | 13c | 114.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8f…d7e3backed Yes | 26c | 114.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda81…ccdabacked Yes | 32c | 114.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94a…0ff1backed Yes | 18c | 108.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Discord’s market cap be $30B or greater at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Discord’s market cap be between $15B and $20B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Discord’s market cap be between $20B and $25B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Discord’s market cap be between $25B and $30B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.