Macro Indicators · resolved market
BLS delays another CPI release before 2027?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cf117dc50b3fe236db04d89e20fb082c253a5429132d2196933a12126fdd20f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,043
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,071
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,043 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x641b…5433backed Yes | 80c | 4,025$3,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 20c | 3,025$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 20cpaid | +182.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 12c | 1,332$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 47c | 1,134$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.88 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…25c0backed Yes | 52c | 1,124$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.18 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e58…4668backed No | 7c | 1,050$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52dd…d79fbacked No | 7c | 1,050$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 16c | 999.98$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…53dabacked No | 68c | 866$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.82 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +216.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 5c | 789.54$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.77 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No | 65c | 662.39$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.54 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73ca…055abacked No | 15c | 650$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 41c | 643.04$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 22c | 616.27$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.58 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 73c | 564.58$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c16…4890backed No | 18c | 550$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a9…307bbacked Yes | 32c | 507.67$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked No | 27c | 500$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked No | 53c | 473.54$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.35 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 33c | 417.7$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.8 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…6dffbacked Yes | 54c | 389.42$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1d…a1e3backed Yes | 40c | 300$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +148.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 61c | 259.99$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.28 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 39c | 258.49$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.68 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 70c | 253.75$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.85 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 45c | 222.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 20cpaid | +121.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed No | 54c | 193.6$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.49 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 70c | 177.7$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 60c | 136.08$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.66 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 67c | 120.5$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…8079backed No | 44c | 116.89$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fc…51acbacked No | 14c | 113.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x690a…2ea7backed Yes | 47c | 110.14$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 43c | 109$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 105$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.85 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed Yes | 48c | 102.46$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 43c | 91.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked No | 72c | 91.7$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 21c | 90.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 49c | 87.7$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 33c | 78.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.47 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 70c | 71.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.87 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 56c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 66c | 59.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 28c | 48.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…30a8backed Yes | 38c | 43.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +122.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x856f…2f64backed No | 65c | 30.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked No | 49c | 20.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea45…e748backed Yes | 50c | 20.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…3058backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.