Middle East · resolved market
Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb40e0490382e7bc89d193fcc8657d0acb9191afd764ef435af888868ba2b88eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $357,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $343,007
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $357,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 382 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff91…ab3abacked No | 72c | 19,289$13,951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,337.36 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 21c | 16,955$3,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,613.9 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 21c | 5,945$1,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,268.65 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92a6…8b84backed No | 69c | 5,825$4,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,815.27 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…fc3cbacked Yes | 9c | 5,767$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 22c | 5,601$1,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,228.11 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 77c | 5,221$4,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,003 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1c…5d20backed Yes | 41c | 5,204$2,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,107.86 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 72c | 5,189$3,726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,463.42 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes | 21c | 3,637$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.99 | 104 | 35.6%37 W · 67 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfea6…a363backed Yes | 33c | 3,514$1,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,154.56 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 26c | 3,186$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.06 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda9e…ac09backed Yes | 77c | 3,171$2,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,426.75 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked No | 12c | 2,999$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,625.63 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd512…79b3backed Yes | 24c | 2,889$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.95 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked Yes | 15c | 2,819$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.92 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…5073backed No | 71c | 2,756$1,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.48 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f71…1016backed Yes | 45c | 2,724$1,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,219.44 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 10c | 2,531$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,284.73 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…ba97backed Yes | 27c | 2,490$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.57 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…644ebacked Yes | 12c | 2,470$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +49%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 35c | 2,449$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.23 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb464…1d98backed Yes | 30c | 2,361$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac5…cf2ebacked Yes | 49c | 2,060$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.6 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5082…049dbacked No | 66c | 2,001$1,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.98 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5f…11c5backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.4 | 143 | 25.9%37 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf562…4099backed Yes | 16c | 1,999$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.17 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 32c | 1,992$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350.9 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0141…c2dabacked Yes | 35c | 1,966$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…465abacked Yes | 10c | 1,942$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…5f13backed Yes | 77c | 1,832$1,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,409.38 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 59c | 1,768$1,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.34 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fac…4723backed Yes | 9c | 1,613$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e34…c876backed Yes | 17c | 1,582$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 14c | 1,500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 77c | 1,417$1,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,087.91 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked No | 16c | 1,408$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,182.92 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d4…8e51backed Yes | 28c | 1,389$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.92 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa2…6a1bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,385$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.95 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d4…7a70backed Yes | 22c | 1,341$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe467…437fbacked Yes | 20c | 1,329$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 16cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,327$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 45c | 1,322$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.46 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 13c | 1,304$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.09 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…5433backed Yes | 65c | 1,273$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.71 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +125.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 45c | 1,270$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.13 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2800…9840backed Yes | 5c | 1,257$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.71 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa089…2275backed Yes | 16c | 1,249$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 1,242$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.12 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c2…cd02backed Yes | 18c | 1,200$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.24per pick | 35cpaid | +150.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 21c | 1,187$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.96 | 195 | 34.4%67 W · 128 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…ad9fbacked Yes | 26c | 1,186$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.45 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe50f…6765backed Yes | 18c | 1,125$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed Yes | 27c | 1,111$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.97 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c42…1616backed Yes | 12c | 1,100$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356e…75b8backed Yes | 38c | 1,094$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9078…26afbacked Yes | 35c | 1,068$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 13c | 1,047$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.36 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | +22.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x739b…349dbacked Yes | 29c | 1,037$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -71%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 78c | 1,014$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.68 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6401…34b2backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes | 49c | 982.43$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.91 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +64%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 24c | 976.55$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.37 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 969.48$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.27 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…1d1ebacked Yes | 36c | 950.58$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.33 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba3d…cdfabacked Yes | 13c | 948$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.24 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 17c | 940$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.2 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7c…d9b6backed Yes | 22c | 935.92$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38b6…a5e9backed No | 71c | 931.56$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.99 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2a…0e15backed No | 72c | 917.38$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.89 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 43cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 37c | 914.78$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.8 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 910$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…588ebacked Yes | 16c | 896$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.36 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b11…c4c4backed Yes | 4c | 883.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6587…4f63backed Yes | 16c | 877$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.32 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1672…03f1backed No | 15c | 858.8$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +91.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…a432backed Yes | 16c | 850$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 38cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed Yes | 32c | 814.35$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.76 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 800$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.67 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 31c | 799.79$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.98 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…0000backed Yes | 22c | 793.03$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.01 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 7c | 776.56$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.81 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2425…3dd1backed No | 52c | 765.79$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.79 | 121 | 39.7%48 W · 73 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x846d…4ab2backed Yes | 16c | 755$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 10c | 750$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…bd00backed No | 79c | 716.21$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.74 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a935backed Yes | 2c | 714.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fb…db5cbacked Yes | 53c | 713.09$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.89 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -7.3wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 19c | 706.33$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.94 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 66c | 705.4$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.02 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e1…c65cbacked Yes | 2c | 703.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 43c | 681$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.64 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 48c | 665.99$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.31 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9eec…9a8cbacked No | 75c | 660.63$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.73 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 77c | 660.37$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.45 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 18c | 606$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.08 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5e…beddbacked Yes | 28c | 604.79$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 9c | 603.81$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked Yes | 44c | 600.77$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.34 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +10.5wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +27%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.