Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41591126808a16ad403e1e28f744ba7c49d0be936411a94d98074a37628ed8d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,936
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,353
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,936 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad8e…776ebacked No | 64c | 1,772$1,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.57 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 831.72$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.78 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 37c | 826.06$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 793.83$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.44 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 35c | 689.78$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.18 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 640.01$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.53 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 75c | 575.08$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.81 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 73c | 474.28$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.07 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 42c | 412.97$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.04 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 28c | 392.06$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 29c | 389.7$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.6 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 383.2$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.46 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 34c | 320.18$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked Yes | 33c | 257.5$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 19c | 251.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 65c | 234.62$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.31 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 225.81$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.58 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 25c | 206.7$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 205$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.95 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 27c | 174.03$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 21c | 167.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 163.82$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.02 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 39c | 155.9$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.99 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 77c | 154.94$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9742…e412backed Yes | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…6d71backed No | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 36c | 140$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 66c | 138$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 31c | 130.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 124.9$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.68 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked No | 79c | 110$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 107.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 101.3$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 79c | 101.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…16f9backed No | 78c | 101$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 100.46$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 92$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 36c | 90.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 65c | 90.21$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.02 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 35c | 90.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 88.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 60c | 81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 77.35$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes | 51c | 77.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 73$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 40c | 72.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 75c | 71.62$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 67c | 67.7$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 21c | 66.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 37c | 66.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 37c | 65.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 64.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 38c | 63.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 33c | 62.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…7879backed Yes | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 64c | 61.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 41c | 58.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 57.86$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 62c | 55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 62c | 53.73$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 66c | 53.66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 62c | 53.37$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 38c | 53.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 37c | 52.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 69c | 52.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 38c | 51.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…bf7bbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 49.49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2edc…a207backed Yes | 37c | 49.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 39c | 45.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2faa…26c2backed Yes | 36c | 44.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 24c | 43.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 32c | 43.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 35c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x383e…8483backed Yes | 35c | 42.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 56c | 42.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 77c | 40.48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf06b…f629backed Yes | 31c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…0200backed Yes | 36c | 38.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 68c | 36.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 72c | 36.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 73c | 32.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed No | 62c | 32.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 55c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 71c | 31.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 38c | 31.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 32c | 30.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 29.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 77c | 29.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4429…fcbdbacked Yes | 45c | 28.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on July 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 39°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.