Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19430f365cf0beade3aa1672f163f266a29e6f515920bf5f391e595f2fa121b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,890
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,890 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 35c | 927.67$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.14 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 39c | 902.87$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.87 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 61c | 701.03$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.63 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 37c | 621.07$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.04 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 44c | 618.61$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.32 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 584.75$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.1 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 40c | 559.67$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 519.33$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.02 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 40c | 461.56$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.28 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 62c | 388.17$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.82 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 353.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 11c | 350$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 50c | 313.02$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.36 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 279.48$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.65 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 62c | 261.93$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.39 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 40c | 215.98$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.65 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed Yes | 39c | 206.29$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.84 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 50c | 188.94$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.47 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 186.89$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.44 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 39c | 181.28$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 43c | 178$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.28 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 66c | 177.56$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.19 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked Yes | 59c | 172.7$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.92 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 51c | 171.81$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.62 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 18c | 165.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ba…a792backed Yes | 64c | 156.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 152.34$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.43 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 50c | 152.22$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.11 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb9…9c56backed Yes | 80c | 149.1$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +9.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 10c | 144.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 63c | 139.29$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.92 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 128.77$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.23 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 34c | 126.65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.49 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 20c | 126.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 124.9$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.56 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 34c | 118.6$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.72 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 115.54$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe53…99a6backed No | 37c | 113.49$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 61c | 111.61$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.28 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed No | 61c | 110.28$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.27 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x878c…c12abacked No | 12c | 108.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 61c | 105.26$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.21 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa430…7105backed No | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 13c | 84.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 49c | 70.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 39c | 65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 64.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 40c | 63.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 30c | 63.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 19c | 63.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes | 47c | 59.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 60c | 56.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 55c | 55.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 35c | 52.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 38c | 52.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…bf7bbacked Yes | 41c | 49.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 59c | 49.93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 54c | 47.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 47.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 57c | 45.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2faa…26c2backed Yes | 38c | 44.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 65c | 43.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 41c | 43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7b…ffc1backed No | 65c | 41.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2edc…a207backed Yes | 33c | 41.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 33c | 40.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 56c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf06b…f629backed Yes | 33c | 39.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 31c | 37.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 60c | 37.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6792…b5f3backed Yes | 63c | 36.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 44c | 32.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 37c | 30.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…0c9cbacked Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…56d9backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…ceecbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.26per pick | 63cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…0f6ebacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 58c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 64c | 29.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 38c | 29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718b…1bf2backed Yes | 48c | 27.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 56c | 26.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 56c | 25.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed No | 65c | 25.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 39°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.