TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,555
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,547

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,555 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0729…5f54backed No57c324.22$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.867158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6424…2718backed No60c270.57$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.2342754.6%233 W · 194 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes37c263.35$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed Yes38c260.8$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.3294552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc15…cca6backed Yes44c255.53$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.626441.3%109 W · 155 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No55c235.16$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.4261760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No62c213.72$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.958,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes6c204$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed No60c200$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8049646%228 W · 268 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No47c192.79$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.8812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes42c177.4$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No55c169$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.295,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes30c164.23$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.711,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes34c158.79$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes48c147$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.871,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No64c146.34$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.065,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8297…d600backed No53c125.98$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.4513448.5%65 W · 69 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No62c124.79$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.81,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes40c120.12$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.052,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7523…121ebacked Yes39c119.98$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.34520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-65.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No59c116.78$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.681,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No56c110.89$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.932,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe6e…2313backed No61c110.23$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.3626256.5%148 W · 114 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ce0…8d6fbacked Yes46c99.98$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21fb…842cbacked Yes44c99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444934.7%17 W · 32 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb33…19d9backed Yes41c96.04$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.066437.5%24 W · 40 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3fa…4531backed Yes34c95.66$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3131936.1%115 W · 204 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a8e…05a4backed No77c91.93$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2843050.2%216 W · 214 L+21.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfddf…1686backed No63c91$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2964167.6%433 W · 208 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes15c88.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.36,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes36c83$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2228344.5%126 W · 157 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed No63c82.31$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.171,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes36c80.22$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.94,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No49c75.13$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.291,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cef…8fa3backed No64c70.5$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2539346.6%183 W · 210 L+29.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5824…7307backed No56c70$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.855271.2%37 W · 15 L+4.6wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+18.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No70c63.96$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.969,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes37c61.07$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.462,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd615…ae32backed Yes21c57.35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9533962.8%213 W · 126 L+40.8wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+17.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No58c57.23$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.112,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No54c57.21$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.044,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No65c56.27$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.921,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x331d…8846backed No49c51.05$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0528244%124 W · 158 L+38.6wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+29.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes40c49.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.661,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed Yes31c47.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1559144.5%263 W · 328 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No47c45.59$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.024,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed Yes30c45.37$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.761,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes50c44.93$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.525,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x437b…95f5backed Yes40c44.07$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6324546.9%115 W · 130 L-12.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No55c44$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.857948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes32c43.28$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8587629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed No64c42.82$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4837355%205 W · 168 L+20.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6784…7565backed Yes40c42.5$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176451.6%33 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Yes49c40.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.91,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe381…3ba9backed No71c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.87665.8%50 W · 26 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf06b…f629backed Yes38c39.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.24932.7%16 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4d9…af28backed Yes35c39$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.659635.4%34 W · 62 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+22.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xadd7…8622backed No67c37.73$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4517766.7%118 W · 59 L-0.8wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x234c…90dbbacked Yes41c36.81$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1558138.9%226 W · 355 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f9e…c96bbacked No67c36.68$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1541331%128 W · 285 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes51c35.94$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.152,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51dd…4053backed No68c33.92$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8540352.4%211 W · 192 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes36c33.53$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2135742.9%153 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaa05…9907backed No56c32.76$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.566567.7%44 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No64c31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.164,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bee…50ccbacked Yes43c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.95448.1%26 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No54c28.73$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xbc9e…251fbacked No60c28.52$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.349960.6%60 W · 39 L+16.0wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+42.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No53c26.93$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7695852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed No65c26.32$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1753951.9%280 W · 259 L+54.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes48c23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.047,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xf7ec…e53abacked No67c22.85$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5415553.5%83 W · 72 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe930…8c7ebacked No61c22.61$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.711957.9%11 W · 8 L+4.0wins+0.21per pick37cpaid+45.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes65c22.3$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.578663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdab3…79b1backed No54c20.62$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.438347%39 W · 44 L+6.5wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x21f4…81a6backed No49c20.41$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4111519.1%22 W · 93 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-26.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No56c20.12$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.881,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes58c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6286952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1f2…9bf5backed No62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.63450%17 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf3c…ddd0backed No56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.846667.6%315 W · 151 L+0.8wins0.00per pick67cpaid+334.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No65c19.77$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$798565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35fc…ac54backed No65c19.06$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7424751.8%128 W · 119 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x38c7…1c86backed No68c18.04$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7711844.1%52 W · 66 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77a4…c217backed No69c17.26$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.44075%30 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36a2…b8fabacked No63c15.87$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.792560%15 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No68c15.62$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No71c15.6$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.472,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7274…c205backed Yes67c15.15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0921361%130 W · 83 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.