Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2077df9c27178066c1e950b994e6b3ebd8abbf543ba21976136e5dc535af168
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,994
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 1c | 1,350$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb7…d9b8backed Yes | 38c | 500$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.64 | 72 | 23.6%17 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 39c | 258.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.72 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…d600backed Yes | 40c | 241.92$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.19 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 17c | 227.69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 62c | 210$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.2 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 60c | 191.49$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.3 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 180.18$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 169$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.05 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 159.63$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.4 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 38c | 99.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 57c | 90$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca84…6f8dbacked Yes | 40c | 87.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.41 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 70c | 81.28$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 41c | 80.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.12 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 61c | 77.05$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 16c | 76.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 75.72$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 61c | 75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 62c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 56c | 60.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 55.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 77c | 53.66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…1ea8backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec34…b109backed No | 49c | 49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 41c | 46.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 80c | 44.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 58c | 44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…7307backed Yes | 80c | 40.29$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 40.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 56c | 35.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 36c | 33.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 60c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 30.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 42c | 30.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 62c | 29.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 61c | 29.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 35c | 29.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6784…7565backed No | 62c | 25.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 55c | 24.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 55c | 24.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 62c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 62c | 23.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 49c | 22.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 51c | 21.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 79c | 21.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 61c | 21.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 51c | 20.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 60c | 20.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7523…121ebacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 52c | 19.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 63c | 17.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 61c | 17.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 67c | 16.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.