Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee67b0a2341d1ae68fae2bc6075833b49cbad9cc3dc95d2b0f40bcc8adec893b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,945
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,110
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,945 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 60c | 1,458$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 5c | 570.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 7c | 433.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 406.08$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 9c | 362.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 22c | 303.53$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.53 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 56c | 263$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.89 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 14c | 261.64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 69c | 228.38$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.49 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed No | 19c | 205.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 192.77$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 15c | 187.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 78c | 174.46$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.73 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 10c | 167.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 6c | 157.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 25c | 133.79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.97 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 73c | 129.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.89 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 61c | 112.79$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.61 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 47c | 110.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.16 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 79c | 107.79$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 25c | 104.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.17 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 11c | 99.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.98 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 12c | 92.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.83 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 30c | 89.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 35c | 87.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.91 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 15c | 79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 22c | 75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cef…d85bbacked Yes | 34c | 69.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.76 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…85f2backed No | 73c | 68.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5074…977bbacked No | 43c | 66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.7wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +47%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…f6a5backed No | 68c | 57.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8292…0482backed Yes | 57c | 54.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 19c | 53.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.1 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 20c | 53.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 76c | 46.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe163…0ce3backed Yes | 54c | 45.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 50c | 44.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 44.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 44c | 43.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd35…c85ebacked Yes | 78c | 38.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 43c | 35.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 30.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x273f…ef14backed No | 39c | 29.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 74c | 28.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf06b…f629backed Yes | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 77c | 23.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 77c | 23.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…6272backed Yes | 73c | 23.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed Yes | 56c | 21.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…d2dabacked Yes | 62c | 20.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 70c | 18.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 66c | 15.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 78c | 14.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.