Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f8e5d63473c37bfc05c4f4debd581f7d0d09cdefaafb9ba2056038052371816
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,859
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,859 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf41c…3c9bbacked Yes | 5c | 2,198$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe353…4efcbacked Yes | 29c | 1,532$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…aef4backed Yes | 31c | 490$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.4 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 73c | 414.2$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.84 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 400$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc388…ed37backed Yes | 38c | 396.06$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.49 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 336.83$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.94 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 5c | 285.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 275.14$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.79 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 13c | 247.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 34c | 246.45$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.83 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 191.92$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.62 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec2…fababacked Yes | 31c | 189.94$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 30c | 176.03$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…c614backed No | 79c | 175.64$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.69 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +3.9wins | +0.28per pick | 65cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 77c | 175.58$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 74c | 167.92$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 61c | 163$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.24 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 158.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…cc2cbacked No | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 68 | 94.1%64 W · 4 L | +12.7wins | +0.19per pick | 75cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 31c | 142.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 64c | 142.38$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.26 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 137.61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 73c | 136.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 23c | 135.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 12c | 133.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 25c | 132.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 30c | 125$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 72c | 125$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 27c | 120.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 73c | 115.3$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 72c | 106$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 27c | 104.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 66c | 100.22$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 73c | 100.06$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 39c | 100.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 23c | 96.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 23c | 95.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x273f…ef14backed Yes | 22c | 92.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 72c | 89.77$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 16c | 73.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked No | 78c | 73.27$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 69c | 71$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 64.32$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 25c | 62.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 71c | 60.85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 24c | 58.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad95…bfeabacked Yes | 30c | 57.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 33c | 56.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 24c | 56.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes | 21c | 55.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…053dbacked Yes | 33c | 55.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…feb9backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…1ea8backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…794ebacked Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 71c | 47.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa8…e07abacked Yes | 25c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd35…c85ebacked Yes | 44c | 45.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 43.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe7…88e7backed No | 58c | 43.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 73c | 37.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 73c | 35.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 72c | 28.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 43c | 28.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 61c | 25.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 17.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff3…4b1ebacked No | 71c | 17.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 80 | 73.8%59 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 72c | 16.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 73c | 16.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 74c | 16.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed No | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f70…133ebacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 69c | 14.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.