Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c94890bfdd001cc7b63695c0f08dcc91e8651116fa2767a0e4062ace2d6e5b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,408
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,788
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,408 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 34c | 2,101$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 61c | 1,051$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.99 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd1…d8f4backed Yes | 40c | 1,050$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.59 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 62c | 770.3$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.89 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 43c | 708.1$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.13 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2edc…a207backed Yes | 38c | 672.37$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.9 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…57efbacked Yes | 38c | 655.47$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 568.23$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.07 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes | 38c | 414.37$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.1 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 38c | 320.51$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 62c | 306.04$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.73 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 36c | 300.71$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.96 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 294.63$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.26 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 272.27$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.62 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 17c | 268.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 64c | 247.61$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.87 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 234.92$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.71 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 59c | 214$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.74 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…16f9backed No | 77c | 206.45$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.33 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 48c | 200.48$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.47 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 38c | 197.34$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.61 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 186.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 161$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.3 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd569…087bbacked Yes | 36c | 153.32$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.39 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 69c | 149$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.19 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 74c | 135.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 60c | 131.2$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.19 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 67c | 130.02$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.91 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 27c | 128.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 61c | 126.71$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.93 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 125$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.65 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 34c | 120.73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.27 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 57c | 120$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed Yes | 40c | 119.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 69c | 118.43$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.79 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 36c | 109.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 33c | 109$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 105$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 104$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 61c | 103.28$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.47 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 60c | 101$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.74 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 36c | 99.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 97.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 36c | 96.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 96$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 38c | 94.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 94.42$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 40c | 90.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 49c | 89$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 37c | 86.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked Yes | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 79.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 79.2$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 27c | 74.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 57c | 70.75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 28c | 70.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 70c | 67.41$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 63c | 65.46$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf3…369dbacked No | 69c | 63.57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3b…880abacked Yes | 38c | 61.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 27c | 59.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4917…8bbebacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 63c | 56.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 68c | 55.6$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca1…7e1ebacked Yes | 30c | 52.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 37c | 52.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 57c | 52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +10.6wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 42c | 46.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 44c | 45.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 62c | 45.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 70c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 32c | 40.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9297…358bbacked Yes | 36c | 40.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf06b…f629backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 41c | 36.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 34.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 62c | 34.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x532e…d5b1backed Yes | 51c | 31.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 69c | 30.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 70c | 30.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 62c | 29.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 64c | 29.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 56c | 27.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 37c | 27.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 60c | 26.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf305…62a3backed Yes | 38c | 26.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 41c | 25.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 68c | 23.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 59c | 22.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 61c | 22.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on August 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.