Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf601fb22010a04b49aa06ba5cfc203560796c3b3572dcaf6845cc823bfdcc346
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,337
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,337 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 42c | 1,619$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.61 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd1…d8f4backed Yes | 56c | 1,283$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.03 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2edc…a207backed Yes | 53c | 1,089$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.17 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 56c | 1,025$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.63 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 43c | 714.91$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.43 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 37c | 616.62$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.74 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 58c | 570.82$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.25 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 512.57$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.43 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 39c | 435.78$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.78 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 51c | 338.94$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.79 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes | 49c | 297.87$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.22 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 59c | 247.32$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.89 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 59c | 234.92$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.51 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 43c | 234.48$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.4 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 204$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.37 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 52c | 200.53$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.34 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 52c | 200.02$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.15 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 178.34$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.92 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 52c | 168$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.91 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 161$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.73 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 26c | 158.94$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.62 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 60c | 158$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.8 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 53c | 145.07$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.94 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 57c | 136.71$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.27 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 57c | 130.73$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.77 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 63c | 125$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.75 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 49c | 121.13$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.37 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 18c | 118$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 116.78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 57c | 109.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 45c | 107$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 55c | 101.52$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.19 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 58c | 101$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.59 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd241…fab0backed Yes | 73c | 95.81$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 56c | 92.04$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.42 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 90$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 53c | 89.87$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.63 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 54c | 85.74$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 41c | 84.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 35c | 84.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 43c | 83.83$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.39 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 44c | 70.63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.55 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 33c | 70.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.83 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 59c | 69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 49c | 68.15$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x53e1…f420backed No | 43c | 67.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 61c | 67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…c16abacked Yes | 76c | 65.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6851…ec54backed Yes | 59c | 65.23$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf3…369dbacked No | 43c | 64.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 52c | 64.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 33c | 61.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 38c | 61.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.86 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 68c | 60.51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…e4babacked Yes | 44c | 57.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 52c | 56.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 43c | 49.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 62c | 48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 42c | 47.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 69c | 44.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 41c | 42.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 74c | 41.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 51c | 40.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 62c | 40.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 56c | 39.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 56c | 39.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 62c | 39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 35c | 38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 41c | 35.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 40c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 34.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3b…880abacked Yes | 48c | 34.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 48c | 34.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…0abdbacked Yes | 41c | 34.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b88…63dfbacked Yes | 41c | 34.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…443bbacked Yes | 38c | 33.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 51c | 33.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x532e…d5b1backed Yes | 42c | 32.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9297…358bbacked Yes | 45c | 30.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fea…f2c9backed Yes | 66c | 30.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…7481backed Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 39c | 28.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 37c | 28.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0d…849cbacked No | 57c | 28.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.