Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabf1f422c29368ca5b7a419e98bc4a5b43ca86d2a80cbe40e9eab908c120f905
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 15c | 2,154$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,831.14 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 62c | 1,079$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.73 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 963.92$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.58 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed Yes | 12c | 612.09$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.9 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 48c | 600.72$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.99 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 20c | 577.49$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.2 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 23c | 572.68$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.66 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 21c | 567.74$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.68 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 31c | 400$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.8 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x107c…ab15backed Yes | 7c | 374.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.42 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 14c | 354$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.02 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2edc…a207backed Yes | 15c | 323.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.76 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 12c | 314.57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.07 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 22c | 269.07$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.77 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 18c | 267$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.02 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 12c | 263.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.37 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 62c | 238.45$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.73 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 56c | 238.32$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.06 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 25c | 211.09$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.91 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd1…d8f4backed Yes | 21c | 202.92$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.94 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.08 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +10.6wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 19c | 198.41$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.31 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 19c | 193.55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.29 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 80c | 177$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.93 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 16c | 173.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.24 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 25c | 172.7$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.24 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 77c | 170.4$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.37 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…e4babacked Yes | 17c | 162.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.14 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 8c | 154.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.45 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 10c | 153$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes | 25c | 148.94$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.72 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82df…0f66backed Yes | 26c | 148.57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.44 | 69 | 89.9%62 W · 7 L | +25.3wins | +0.37per pick | 53cpaid | +111%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 26c | 143.14$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.01 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 14c | 142.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.55 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 77c | 140.75$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.81 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 8c | 140.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.35 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…a2d2backed Yes | 26c | 137.46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.5 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes | 23c | 130$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 43c | 124.39$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.39 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 79c | 118.2$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.47 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 80c | 117.63$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.05 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 17c | 117.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.28 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 21c | 116.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.77 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 21c | 109.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 107.44$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.89 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 77c | 106.36$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.94 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 12c | 103.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.1 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 20c | 103.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.06 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 22c | 99.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.23 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 18c | 98.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.52 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 29c | 97.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 95.9$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.47 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 60c | 94.31$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.21 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 47c | 81.29$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.87 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 15c | 81.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.15 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed No | 70c | 78.2$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.58 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 76c | 77.49$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 15c | 74.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.54 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…bf9bbacked No | 71c | 72.58$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.71 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 72.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 68.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 66.64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 24c | 60.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.09 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 38c | 58.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 40c | 56.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e9…1f83backed Yes | 21c | 56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 20c | 55.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.24 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…ef14backed Yes | 20c | 51.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.57 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…238dbacked Yes | 34c | 50.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.65 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d43…9719backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.86 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 73c | 47.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 32c | 47.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf06b…f629backed Yes | 29c | 45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 65c | 39.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 75c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 31.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…b443backed No | 80c | 25.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 68c | 24.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x87e3…a9c6backed No | 80c | 23.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 74cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 74c | 21.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 67c | 17.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 79c | 15.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…ca9cbacked No | 77c | 15.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C or below on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.