Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99374de62e412299559caade74d3607912fb59d2a2dbddb4e0ec3b89d8011a7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,410
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,072
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,410 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 30c | 1,108$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.98 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 74c | 661.24$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.45 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 34c | 588.42$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 68c | 565$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.18 | 72 | 81.9%59 W · 13 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 21c | 500$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.09 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2edc…a207backed Yes | 38c | 426.73$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.81 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd1…d8f4backed Yes | 26c | 391.71$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.67 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 26c | 347.2$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.92 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 70c | 336.24$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.04 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 332.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 77c | 307.16$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.65 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 33c | 302.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.55 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 265.39$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.82 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 11c | 256$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 28c | 251.39$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.88 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 30c | 235.6$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.91 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 19c | 234.43$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 33c | 206.86$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.48 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked No | 77c | 201.54$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.54 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a0…6623backed Yes | 33c | 200.09$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.34 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 73c | 199.85$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.97 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8b…b7b8backed Yes | 16c | 196.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 195.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 192$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.64 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 185$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.63 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 24c | 172.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 22c | 160$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 155$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 80c | 154.38$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ccefbacked Yes | 39c | 154.15$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 31c | 150.84$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f35…9ea4backed No | 68c | 149.12$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 75c | 143$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 79c | 142.32$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 74c | 141.96$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 138.44$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 30c | 134.19$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 64c | 127.17$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.47 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 18c | 126.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 23c | 122.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 24c | 121.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b6…0d76backed Yes | 18c | 120$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 118.88$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 76c | 117.09$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 26c | 115.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 62c | 113.53$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.74 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 71c | 112.75$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 109.16$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 13c | 108.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 28c | 107.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 39c | 106.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 74c | 105$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 103.41$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 29c | 101.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…ef14backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 35c | 94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed Yes | 37c | 93.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 68c | 92.65$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 79c | 89.34$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x107c…ab15backed Yes | 23c | 85.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…e4babacked Yes | 32c | 83.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 82.06$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked Yes | 19c | 81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 79c | 80.02$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 73c | 77.73$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 80c | 77.34$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 76c | 76.13$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 30c | 73.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 15c | 73.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 73$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 71.9$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 76c | 71.38$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a0…07cfbacked Yes | 16c | 68.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 72c | 68.19$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 27c | 66.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…f9febacked No | 80c | 66.28$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 60c | 65.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 66c | 64.16$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 32c | 63.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 22c | 59.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 74c | 57.19$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…e5d4backed No | 69c | 57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 89 | 76.4%68 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b88…63dfbacked Yes | 20c | 56.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 28c | 55.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 69c | 53.52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 78c | 51.95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 122 | 24.6%30 W · 92 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d43…9719backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed No | 66c | 47.07$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 68c | 45.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 31c | 45.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 36c | 45.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 72c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 28c | 41.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 64c | 41.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed Yes | 24c | 40.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…6ed2backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C or below on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on August 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.