Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x904a6759d41a00280eca9da81a491a4da0e870e17173022d6bb974dedb3aa5f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,357
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,357 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked Yes | 44c | 1,140$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 920.34$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.52 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 70c | 835.48$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.71 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 773.68$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.44 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 28c | 448.81$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.6 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 412.8$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.45 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd1…d8f4backed Yes | 32c | 379.48$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.84 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 34c | 336.83$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.6 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…b48dbacked Yes | 32c | 314.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 299.64$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 31c | 274.22$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.57 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 76c | 273.47$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.29 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed No | 64c | 251.5$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.27 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +10.6wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 30c | 240.09$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.66 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 31c | 236.91$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.75 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 69c | 200.23$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.64 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.24 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 28c | 199.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 30c | 193.35$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.94 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 80c | 187.05$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.97 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 67c | 174.15$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.64 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 173.75$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 22c | 171$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 67c | 167.45$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.61 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 149.59$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.42 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 147.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.11 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 27c | 146.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 34c | 142$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 30c | 140$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 71c | 137.87$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 33c | 134.77$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.94 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…711ebacked Yes | 38c | 131.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 26c | 130.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 69c | 129$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 31c | 126.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…56d9backed No | 64c | 126$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.18 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 63c | 123.17$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.73 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 42c | 121.91$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.13 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 73c | 119.64$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…e9f0backed Yes | 34c | 115.55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 69c | 110.82$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 70c | 108.53$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…b443backed Yes | 28c | 107.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 30c | 105.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 25c | 104$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 104$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 26c | 102.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef8…a4edbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.5wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -71%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 67c | 97.81$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.56 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 96.38$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 70c | 95.72$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 25c | 94.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 27c | 92.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 29c | 91.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 53c | 90.62$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 29c | 84.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 25c | 84.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 63c | 84.26$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 33c | 83.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x155d…a4f4backed Yes | 29c | 82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…ef14backed Yes | 29c | 79.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 75.02$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc9…b2eebacked Yes | 34c | 74.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…eb78backed No | 68c | 73.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 68cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 34c | 73.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 56c | 73.57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 28c | 71.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 71.11$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 65c | 70.9$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 32c | 69.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 69c | 68.05$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf305…62a3backed Yes | 30c | 67.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 25c | 66.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked No | 52c | 65.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.61 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 40c | 61.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7284…b0f2backed Yes | 42c | 58.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 53c | 58.13$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 51c | 58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 43c | 57.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 35c | 57.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…16f9backed Yes | 48c | 56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0827…cdcfbacked Yes | 30c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 33c | 54.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfb…fd5abacked Yes | 30c | 50.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…bf9bbacked No | 53c | 47.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed No | 74c | 47.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 27c | 47.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 72c | 47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 45.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 27c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 31c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 31c | 43.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 71c | 42.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 40.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 34c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on August 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.