Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0ef25593ef48357bef11f60fe81d1cd9a5427b6fdcfcbff9878ef01fee677bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,812
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 49c | 1,695$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.02 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked No | 51c | 969.98$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.46 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 46c | 848.07$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.07 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 54c | 700.97$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.24 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 46c | 616.95$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.41 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 48c | 540.05$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.67 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 49c | 423.06$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97d8…0a12backed No | 57c | 395.16$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.98 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 55c | 303.48$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.2 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 46c | 299.64$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.62 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 54c | 298$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.5 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 56c | 285.35$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.39 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd1…d8f4backed Yes | 58c | 255.21$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.58 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 44c | 237.82$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.56 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 221.07$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 57c | 212.89$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.76 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 60c | 201.69$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.68 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 55c | 193$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.62 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 48c | 188.83$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.02 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 42c | 181.56$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.13 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 43c | 176.53$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.66 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 58c | 171.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.36 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.47 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 39c | 150$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.74 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 44c | 148.87$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.88 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 42c | 147.46$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.48 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 44c | 143.83$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.96 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 45c | 136.6$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.06 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 47c | 135.32$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.16 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 45c | 135.03$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.98 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 133.44$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.64 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 48c | 129$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.96 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 47c | 127.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.45 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 53c | 124$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.72 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 44c | 123.11$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.26 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 53c | 122.45$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.99 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 46c | 118.7$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.57 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 44c | 111.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes | 36c | 111.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.07 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 68c | 107$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 46c | 106.84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…e4babacked Yes | 52c | 106.84$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 43c | 105.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.75 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 58c | 102.17$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.01 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 52c | 100.24$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.36 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 48c | 96.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.27 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 59c | 93.31$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 47c | 88.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 50c | 87.73$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.53 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 57c | 84$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 41c | 83.92$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.74 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 46c | 79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 37c | 76.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 53c | 76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 52c | 74.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82df…0f66backed Yes | 44c | 74.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.53 | 69 | 89.9%62 W · 7 L | +25.3wins | +0.37per pick | 53cpaid | +111%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 57c | 73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 64c | 68.06$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 47c | 65.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.61 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 46c | 65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x040a…118dbacked No | 41c | 61.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3b…880abacked Yes | 54c | 59.25$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 41c | 58.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 47c | 58.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 45c | 58.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 38c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 43c | 52.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfb…fd5abacked Yes | 60c | 49.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…ef14backed Yes | 65c | 46.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 43.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 57c | 43.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ede…a9e9backed No | 55c | 42.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 52c | 42.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…e9f0backed Yes | 41c | 41.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 46c | 41.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 63c | 41.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 55c | 40.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 76c | 39.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 45c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 52c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 56c | 36.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 52c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Yes | 53c | 34.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 60c | 33.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…a2d2backed Yes | 50c | 32.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes | 45c | 31.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5201…34c3backed No | 59c | 31.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 53c | 30.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 40c | 29.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44ec…082cbacked Yes | 65c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 47c | 28.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.