Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4a0822384063cfbd3565aeed82f7d5716faadc0dc4f0bf2651c19e6e048189a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,446
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c7c…2d79backed Yes | 3c | 1,112$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 34c | 826.87$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.81 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 67c | 376.9$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.27 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 329$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.68 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 66c | 312.9$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.17 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…3269backed Yes | 41c | 302.28$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 34c | 297$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.98 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3224…dc4dbacked Yes | 36c | 281.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 4c | 278.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 65c | 254.46$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.06 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 32c | 225.27$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.34 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 31c | 215.35$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.96 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…d72dbacked Yes | 27c | 210$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.3 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 46cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 194.51$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.95 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 66c | 183.09$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.89 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 167$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.55 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Yes | 34c | 162.07$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 35c | 158.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.92 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 26c | 143.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 70c | 142.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.82 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e7…ed80backed Yes | 31c | 142.14$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 28c | 136.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b36…0d4bbacked No | 72c | 136.26$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 21c | 133.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 38c | 131.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 130.06$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 31c | 128.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 32c | 126.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 115.46$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 108.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db2…43aabacked Yes | 33c | 104.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 32c | 102.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05dc…7351backed Yes | 36c | 102.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 33c | 101.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4824…a847backed Yes | 50c | 99.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed No | 67c | 98.14$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 97.82$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 94.15$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b6…92d5backed No | 65c | 93.65$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 63cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 92.1$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 61c | 86.43$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.11 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 36c | 85.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 66c | 84.79$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed No | 63c | 70.66$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 69c | 70.6$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 52c | 66.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ba…d4fbbacked Yes | 40c | 64.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -4.5wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a68…13f0backed Yes | 38c | 64.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 60c | 63.72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 35c | 62.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 67c | 61.29$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 70c | 60.61$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 66c | 58.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e9…49b4backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 55.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9374…3770backed Yes | 45c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 55c | 54.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 38c | 53.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 32c | 53.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 65c | 52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 30c | 51.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…5e72backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e1…4995backed Yes | 52c | 47.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d9…c3cbbacked Yes | 32c | 46.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 64c | 44.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 72c | 43.14$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 72c | 43.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 56c | 41.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 43c | 41.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 68c | 40.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 34c | 40.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53d2…1118backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52f4…2dd3backed Yes | 29c | 39.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf06b…f629backed Yes | 29c | 39.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 35c | 39.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 67c | 37.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 35c | 37.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3d…a3b8backed Yes | 40c | 37.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 67c | 36.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 67c | 36.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fef…66ecbacked Yes | 28c | 36.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 34c | 33.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 37c | 33.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 64c | 32.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…3fdfbacked Yes | 45c | 32.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 62c | 32.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e1…1243backed No | 71c | 29.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…89a1backed Yes | 36c | 29.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C or higher on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.