Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x102a6f14f40bbffe093002792a9d1677127de3c324ae91228801dc148f285858
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,847
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,897
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,847 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 10c | 1,008$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.13 | 923 | 29.1%269 W · 654 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 9c | 486.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 207 | 10.1%21 W · 186 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 13c | 478.38$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.34 | 3,426 | 31.1%1,066 W · 2,360 L | -38.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 11c | 467.96$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.49 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 10c | 316.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 1,523 | 15.4%234 W · 1,289 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 287.75$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.67 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 14c | 258.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 77c | 250.25$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.43 | 236 | 63.6%150 W · 86 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 12c | 241.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 14c | 229.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 235 | 31.1%73 W · 162 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 15c | 207.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 2,265 | 39.6%896 W · 1,369 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 19c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 300 | 32%96 W · 204 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…7fbdbacked Yes | 20c | 190.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 13c | 179.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 486 | 39.7%193 W · 293 L | +21.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x855e…9bd0backed Yes | 23c | 170.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 14c | 155.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 20c | 150.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa3…c48ebacked Yes | 7c | 149.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +132.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 22c | 143$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 134.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 30c | 132.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 887 | 49.5%439 W · 448 L | -26.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 12c | 128.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 923 | 34.1%315 W · 608 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 13c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 18c | 108.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 299 | 36.5%109 W · 190 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7240…9906backed Yes | 10c | 108$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 32c | 104.16$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 400 | 30.3%121 W · 279 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1,102 | 51.7%570 W · 532 L | +74.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 421 | 33.3%140 W · 281 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 17c | 99.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 13c | 99.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 516 | 37.4%193 W · 323 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 80c | 94.15$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 74c | 81.07$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66f4…6ad5backed Yes | 15c | 74.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -6.6wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 19c | 58.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 1,154 | 25%289 W · 865 L | +30.0wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 71c | 56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 2,043 | 61.7%1,261 W · 782 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 24c | 51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 47.21$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…f1fcbacked Yes | 24c | 46.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 3,126 | 61.8%1,931 W · 1,195 L | -30.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf06b…f629backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 79c | 39.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 31c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 35.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e51…dd4fbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 1,615 | 61.9%999 W · 616 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 3,835 | 61.1%2,345 W · 1,490 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e1…1243backed No | 71c | 29.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 660 | 67.4%445 W · 215 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 74c | 27.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 78c | 25.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 72c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 72c | 20.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 140 | 40%56 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C or higher on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.