Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44254f158d66b75c9ba0402448ee17572f75b36f8af4961a1bd7271eaedb6682
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,856
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,387
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,856 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4824…a847backed Yes | 2c | 8,736$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.25 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…6483backed Yes | 1c | 4,750$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 8c | 2,060$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.45 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,684$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.75 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 2c | 1,092$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 330.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 10c | 304.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 297.28$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.08 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 19c | 265.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 14c | 246.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 10c | 227.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 14c | 222.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 14c | 218.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 11c | 199.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 194.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 29c | 192.27$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.23 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 16c | 191.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 14c | 175.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 158.51$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 8c | 157$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7c…2d79backed No | 65c | 153.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.05 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 7c | 151.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 20c | 149.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 64c | 129.68$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.85 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 12c | 127.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 17c | 127.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 12c | 124.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 20c | 101.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 41c | 101.63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 13c | 100.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 14c | 95.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9db2…43aabacked Yes | 63c | 94.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x855e…9bd0backed No | 72c | 82.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 73c | 81.04$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…c48cbacked No | 38c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.53 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +100.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 21c | 75.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed Yes | 19c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 56c | 69.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 77c | 60.83$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked No | 70c | 58.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 59c | 51.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 72c | 51.38$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5953…192fbacked No | 80c | 49.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 44c | 46.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4400…9804backed No | 77c | 45.39$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff32…7da9backed Yes | 31c | 45.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…d72dbacked Yes | 57c | 44.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 46cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…feb9backed Yes | 28c | 39.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 62c | 38.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 33c | 37.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e1…4995backed Yes | 55c | 35.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…7fbdbacked No | 46c | 22.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…21f4backed Yes | 60c | 18.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…e591backed No | 80c | 14.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.91 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 63cpaid | +64%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C or higher on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.