Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50d2914730f071fe6c1a42fb74b26424e1782cee9c1cbf2dbaa9ce73e4c21641
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,598
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,476
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,598 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 0c | 23,830$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 2,900$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7c…2d79backed Yes | 4c | 1,082$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 38c | 827.13$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.5 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 18c | 545.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.35 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b36…0d4bbacked Yes | 35c | 423.28$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.35 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 329$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.69 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 65c | 311.05$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.49 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 34c | 295.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.76 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 66c | 265.89$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.46 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 37c | 250.06$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.16 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.75 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 27c | 200$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 24c | 190.75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.05 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3224…dc4dbacked Yes | 29c | 169.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 168.6$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.22 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 155.64$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked No | 65c | 151.03$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.61 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4824…a847backed Yes | 34c | 148.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 138.5$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Yes | 27c | 130.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 79c | 127.7$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 55c | 121.4$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.36 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 54c | 121.31$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.31 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x139b…2db1backed No | 52c | 106.86$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.29 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9db2…43aabacked Yes | 45c | 101.65$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 16c | 101.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e7…ed80backed Yes | 40c | 99.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 40c | 99.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 94.15$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x855e…9bd0backed Yes | 28c | 93.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 92.75$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 31c | 91.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 38c | 90.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 18c | 86.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 83.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 34c | 82.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 15c | 81.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05dc…7351backed Yes | 42c | 81.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 79.9$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 40c | 76.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 58c | 73.6$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 60c | 73$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…5e72backed Yes | 34c | 72.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 28c | 72.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 69.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed No | 64c | 68.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 40c | 68.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 75c | 66.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 60.76$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 59.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 32c | 58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked Yes | 37c | 56.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdc…e076backed Yes | 29c | 56.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 36c | 55.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 59c | 54.77$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 66c | 53.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 69c | 51.25$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1655…08e1backed Yes | 40c | 50.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9374…3770backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b96…4268backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…7fbdbacked Yes | 31c | 48.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 60c | 48.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 47.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 23c | 47.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 70c | 45.71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b9…9772backed Yes | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 65c | 44.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 77c | 44.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 65c | 43.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 45c | 41.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa767…3d7fbacked Yes | 48c | 41.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bf63backed Yes | 32c | 40.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 39.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 35c | 39.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d9…c3cbbacked Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed Yes | 43c | 39.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 38c | 38.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31d7…618cbacked Yes | 29c | 36.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 35.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a68…13f0backed Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f4…2dd3backed Yes | 44c | 33.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 40c | 33.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 42c | 32.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…3277backed No | 73c | 32.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…afc6backed No | 73c | 31.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 35c | 31.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee88…49a4backed No | 55c | 28.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 69c | 28.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 40c | 28.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C or higher on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.