Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88502dd0beb47187152a57a05a2408c37b59515abe513eab06e7e0c3949746cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,734
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,033
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,734 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 79c | 478.67$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.16 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 4c | 466.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 52c | 415.73$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.06 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 78c | 412.45$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.57 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 7c | 402.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.31 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 78c | 392.78$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.19 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 5c | 385.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.54 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 79c | 346.94$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.37 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 43c | 270.68$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.4 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 226.4$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.85 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 67c | 226.14$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.73 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 16c | 214.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 24c | 189.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 13c | 181.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.69 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…6483backed Yes | 79c | 160.49$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 6c | 159.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.97 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 29c | 136.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 49c | 122.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.91 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 62c | 118.31$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.32 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…2aa0backed Yes | 66c | 99.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 23c | 84.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.16 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 48c | 69.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 44c | 62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 62c | 61.04$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdc…e076backed Yes | 78c | 55.6$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db2…43aabacked Yes | 36c | 55.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa811…75b8backed No | 77c | 55.13$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 60 | 70%42 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 20c | 53.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.51 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 28c | 51.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 68c | 50.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…8a8bbacked No | 70c | 48.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 52c | 44.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed Yes | 44c | 42.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 25c | 40.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 38c | 35.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 41c | 34.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 65c | 32.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 50c | 30.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 79c | 26.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 77c | 23.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 79c | 13.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C or higher on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.