Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e909ad9590e44525e1fcc0d86d2512381a69cce1a5935bc570ffbc42c78a1df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,458
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,458 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 56c | 2,323$1,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020.62 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3240…f6ebbacked Yes | 44c | 999.86$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.61 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 28c | 863.1$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.99 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 36c | 827.9$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 59c | 782.72$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.98 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 59c | 690.2$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.22 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 648.14$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.7 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 43c | 608.85$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.9 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…87f7backed Yes | 44c | 578.03$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.33 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 47c | 516.53$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.77 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…7cafbacked No | 42c | 479.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.32 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 74c | 398.4$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.9 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 42c | 357.38$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.64 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 41c | 337.02$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.77 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 11c | 320.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 229.53$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.53 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 25c | 199.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4a…089fbacked No | 60c | 192.19$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.3 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 183.5$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 69c | 175.27$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.46 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 165.29$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.17 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 14c | 161.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 31c | 161$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 42c | 146.42$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.35 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 72c | 132.35$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.02 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 13c | 129.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 41c | 129.23$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.61 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 37c | 123$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 51c | 122.78$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.63 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 118.66$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.64 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…80babacked No | 74c | 104.75$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…b81bbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +47%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1db…62afbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed Yes | 11c | 99.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 95.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…3895backed Yes | 43c | 94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 66c | 88$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 82.25$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 64c | 78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbabc…f582backed No | 68c | 77.51$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes | 30c | 77.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 48c | 75.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 52c | 74.08$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 64c | 72$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 43c | 71.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 40c | 70.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 19c | 66.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 46c | 64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb0…bd65backed No | 58c | 63.08$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1342…c430backed Yes | 18c | 62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 35c | 60.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 37c | 59.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 55c | 59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 55c | 57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 35c | 56.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 29c | 55.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 66c | 53.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 37c | 52.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 52.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x031d…87d1backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 32c | 46.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed No | 73c | 44.45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3f…e0c1backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 54c | 44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 38c | 43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…52d8backed Yes | 47c | 41.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 73c | 41.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…d9d1backed Yes | 38c | 40.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf06b…f629backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 33c | 39.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae1…77e8backed Yes | 39c | 38.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 75c | 38.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 39c | 36.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed No | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked No | 55c | 33.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 67c | 32.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 40c | 29.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 52c | 28.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 46c | 26.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 26.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.