Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5e8db5e9e9d94f9c2dd296c07d801e194492dc8725cf40ecb6c8f6969dfdcf9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,131
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 6c | 735.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.87 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked No | 56c | 536.65$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.65 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 41c | 285.11$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.45 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 33c | 278.77$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 276.33$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 71c | 256.64$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.43 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 59c | 219.98$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.04 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…12d4backed Yes | 44c | 217.49$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.72 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.29per pick | 52cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 28c | 199.92$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 52c | 164.18$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.58 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed Yes | 45c | 161.65$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.74 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 156.29$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 55c | 153.45$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 146$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.91 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 79c | 125.48$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 29c | 124.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 43c | 123$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.41 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 43c | 122.13$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 51c | 104.28$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.28 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 102.15$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571d…4e76backed No | 46c | 100.64$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.42 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce4…a3bdbacked Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +146%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 42c | 96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.08 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 45c | 91.3$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 45c | 91.28$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.27 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 52c | 88.86$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.79 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 56c | 87.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 57c | 82.82$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed Yes | 44c | 81.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 43c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 49c | 72.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 55c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 66.34$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3f…e0c1backed Yes | 56c | 63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 52c | 62.27$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 62c | 59.34$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 42c | 56.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 57c | 53.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 44c | 53.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…19d9backed Yes | 37c | 53.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 52.13$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66f4…6ad5backed Yes | 76c | 51.55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -6.6wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 29c | 51.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 43c | 50.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 52c | 49.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…5e72backed Yes | 55c | 49.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 31c | 49.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 33c | 47.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 41c | 47.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 64c | 46.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…d9d1backed Yes | 41c | 41.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 45c | 40.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 44c | 40.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf06b…f629backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 55c | 38.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 55c | 38.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 40c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 54c | 36.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 52c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 48c | 33.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0740…517fbacked Yes | 71c | 32.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 60c | 32.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 71c | 31.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 36c | 30.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 42c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 51c | 29.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 46c | 28.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 46c | 28.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 48c | 26.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 55c | 25.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 54c | 25.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…56b7backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 64c | 23.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 21.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x05db…c718backed No | 54c | 21.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 50c | 20.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 70c | 20.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 73c | 20.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb80a…6163backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 74c | 13.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.