Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0dac8a8953fb09ec948dee5fdf69e8c9088b7ec29aba43747a7a8e6f80d95b9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,023
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,023 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 45c | 1,594$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.75 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 5c | 313.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.42 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 36c | 277.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.42 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 15c | 250.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 211.36$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 7c | 200.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.66 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 29c | 190.17$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.59 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 6c | 169.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.67 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 146$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 64c | 136.74$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.79 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 59c | 136.6$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.54 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…03ffbacked Yes | 77c | 119.1$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 49 | 91.8%45 W · 4 L | +18.2wins | +0.37per pick | 55cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 77+0.25 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 26c | 107.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf3…ca4abacked No | 58c | 90$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 15c | 87.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.79 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 74c | 87.5$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed No | 20c | 73.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 65c | 70.45$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.86 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 48c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb9…1879backed Yes | 80c | 65.88$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 43 | 93%40 W · 3 L | +14.6wins | +0.34per pick | 59cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 54c | 59.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…51cbbacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 43c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 75c | 48.43$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 25c | 47.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked No | 53c | 37.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 45c | 31.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed No | 78c | 26.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 60c | 24.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 48c | 23.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 46c | 22.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 68c | 22.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 74c | 20.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 77c | 20.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc90b…7190backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1d…dc67backed No | 54c | 19.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 55c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 70c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.