TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,625
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,719

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,625 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4f74…8774backed Yes39c716.1$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27721236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No57c700.53$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.188,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb82e…db6cbacked Yes2c623.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c59…0c2cbacked No67c441.66$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.869759.8%58 W · 39 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No79c427.82$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.942,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes24c364.98$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.148,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes13c353.18$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.163,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7966…b251backed No70c326.03$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.8114359.4%85 W · 58 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes30c308.38$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.5110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes38c215.46$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.912,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No68c202.18$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.73,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No60c198.91$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.972,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1546…778bbacked Yes41c188.94$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.9735429.9%106 W · 248 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No68c150$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6cd…eaecbacked Yes7c134.31$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1014660.3%88 W · 58 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No64c128.93$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.5197152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes21c124.1$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.052,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes55c119.27$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.427934.2%27 W · 52 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-30.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes36c113.66$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0946626%121 W · 345 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf225…42e0backed Yes15c110.82$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.211947.1%56 W · 63 L+8.2wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed Yes19c102.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.940265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4063255.7%352 W · 280 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3817637.5%66 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked No64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3642547.5%202 W · 223 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes35c99.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3571031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes41c97.7$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.031,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9468…c84fbacked No64c90.48$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.381283.3%10 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick72cpaid+16.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No62c90.14$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.143,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ec6…b459backed Yes21c90$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.838146.5%177 W · 204 L+19.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes22c88.47$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6513959%82 W · 57 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes34c88.4$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.251,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes23c88.13$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1730442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes42c81.28$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7967633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf06b…f629backed Yes19c79.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.64932.7%16 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked No69c71$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0163143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes25c70$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.41,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes41c69.15$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.264,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes40c67.9$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.413,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fea…f2c9backed Yes39c64.55$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253943.6%17 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-15.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9159…f1a8backed Yes56c62.02$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356439.1%25 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes51c61.68$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6319345.6%88 W · 105 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2dbe…4f51backed No65c61.54$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.549150.5%46 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a2f…e889backed Yes21c61.46$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7622849.6%113 W · 115 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No60c60.98$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.112,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed No62c58.28$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0821268.4%145 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7474…3db1backed Yes44c57.27$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes40c55.66$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.159,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No67c51.46$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x82c2…5905backed Yes46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No63c49.88$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.562,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes41c48.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9714546.9%68 W · 77 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5c0…eb75backed No62c47.76$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.154656.5%26 W · 20 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No61c45.79$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.868867.2%462 W · 226 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes24c44.38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8554335%190 W · 353 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No41c44.03$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.041,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No59c43.06$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.861,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes38c43$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5366758%387 W · 280 L+48.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes37c40.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.925,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0977…53ccbacked Yes43c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.26966.7%46 W · 23 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a23…932abacked Yes32c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.81346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+23.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6396…7183backed Yes38c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.210827.8%30 W · 78 L-9.5wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-31.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes44c39.98$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7444945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No57c39.77$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1539956.6%226 W · 173 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes38c39.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1582742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No60c37$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.844,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes44c36.96$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.256,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes40c35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.894,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No62c34.75$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.311,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc18…d7c1backed Yes61c32.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No65c32.64$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.352,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No62c32.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.261,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4dec…de48backed Yes46c32.16$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.912846.4%13 W · 15 L-4.6wins-0.16per pick63cpaid-24.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9b31…4eb6backed No62c31.45$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9521964.8%142 W · 77 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe584…9157backed Yes38c30.97$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8824531%76 W · 169 L-1.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes35c30.74$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7879947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.11,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd73…7481backed Yes37c29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.733243.8%14 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No68c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.951,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No58c24.75$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.394,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fbe…8f74backed No64c23.56$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.46,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb074…9fb3backed No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.422454.5%122 W · 102 L+13.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1089951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x813f…26ecbacked No57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.680962.1%502 W · 307 L-22.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x63ac…3fc9backed No57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.68366.3%55 W · 28 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No72c19$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.329573.7%70 W · 25 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6986…5585backed No73c13.7$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.79852%51 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.