TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,839
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,443

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,839 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x91f8…d951backed No66c1,300$865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$864.575752.6%30 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79ad…4eedbacked No67c1,050$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.66845.6%31 W · 37 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes36c840.27$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.2721236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a3f…8af6backed No74c811.42$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.283246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes39c675.29$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.782,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No4c549.06$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.994,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes34c534.73$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.927934.2%27 W · 52 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-30.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes25c485.55$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.1710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2549…c8b1backed Yes34c465.65$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.918139.5%32 W · 49 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No32c432.82$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.272,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No10c395.38$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.981,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No18c391.39$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.824,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d3f…fde2backed No64c358.51$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2305054%27 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No47c327.84$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.292,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No68c302.15$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.578,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82c2…5905backed Yes47c290.42$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.981631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes29c247.88$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.821,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe605…914fbacked Yes32c233.65$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.1511438.6%44 W · 70 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No33c233.33$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.876,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No64c214$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.963,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd456…8a8bbacked No34c207.33$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.234542.2%19 W · 26 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes35c204.83$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.1481558.5%477 W · 338 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes74c194.94$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.323,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes31c181.73$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.391,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed Yes26c174$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.762,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1546…778bbacked Yes44c169.98$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.5935429.9%106 W · 248 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No22c169$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.084,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No75c167.53$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.2467158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdba1…8239backed Yes37c166.02$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.1912853.9%69 W · 59 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No61c163.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.698,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No24c161.13$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2595852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No62c159.98$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.191,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes28c158.64$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.641,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes51c155.91$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.1579947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No45c138.47$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x58a3…c5cebacked Yes27c137.56$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.017748.1%37 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes34c135.14$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.082,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d10…7075backed No17c132.5$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.272222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid+7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes32c132.31$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.3146626%121 W · 345 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed Yes26c131$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.9454853.1%291 W · 257 L-28.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes51c121.11$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.113430.6%41 W · 93 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes33c120.43$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.9132738.2%125 W · 202 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ec3…a081backed Yes28c108$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.0217524.6%43 W · 132 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5641…6d0dbacked No16c105.3$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5856322.9%129 W · 434 L-32.9wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b7c…f811backed Yes41c101.74$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.268247.6%39 W · 43 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes27c100$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.51,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed No55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5563255.7%352 W · 280 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabf3…4807backed No80c100$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8040%0 W · 4 L-2.8wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x438c…986bbacked Yes27c100$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733716.2%6 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes34c99.99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.9971031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes55c90.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.579728.9%28 W · 69 L+0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed No59c88.11$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.651,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No33c87$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7615236.2%55 W · 97 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30fe…74bcbacked No66c83.91$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0618671%132 W · 54 L+19.2wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+18.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes28c83.49$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.253,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c48…1c17backed No66c82.65$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4516552.7%87 W · 78 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9e9…f1ccbacked No55c82.17$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9713959%82 W · 57 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes31c80$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.672624.8%180 W · 546 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd01…e719backed Yes38c79.08$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.081450%7 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+18.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ec6…b459backed No46c75.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.338146.5%177 W · 204 L+19.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes37c70$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.967633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No70c64$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe229…ea0fbacked No72c63$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1927247.8%130 W · 142 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc3e…0ac4backed Yes35c61.07$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.72321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-42.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No69c60$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.61,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes27c58.4$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.43,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed No52c56.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6240265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed Yes43c52.63$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.7549854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No21c52.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.117,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed Yes25c52$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3989557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33e8…dc93backed Yes25c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.523941.4%99 W · 140 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes27c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.556627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes25c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.517637.5%66 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a2f…e889backed No55c49.55$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.322849.6%113 W · 115 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadb9…8326backed Yes58c47.4$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7914645.9%67 W · 79 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes33c44.08$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.71,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4dec…de48backed Yes37c44.06$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.742846.4%13 W · 15 L-4.6wins-0.16per pick63cpaid-24.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes34c43.38$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6316733.5%56 W · 111 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes38c43$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.8666758%387 W · 280 L+48.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No72c41.09$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.662,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No33c40.49$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4571057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes27c40$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.223146.3%107 W · 124 L-8.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xba0f…9558backed Yes27c40$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.27237.5%27 W · 45 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+25.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf06b…f629backed Yes26c40$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.64932.7%16 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06f2…8798backed No71c39.77$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0816566.1%109 W · 56 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes31c35.5$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.415,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No66c35$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1555855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacb7…2ebbbacked Yes46c34.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.959548.4%46 W · 49 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed No76c34$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9736648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6845…b6ddbacked No77c33.73$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.974776.6%36 W · 11 L+7.0wins+0.15per pick62cpaid+25%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xeee9…f66fbacked No67c33.7$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.713542.2%57 W · 78 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-26.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes37c32.73$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.746,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No70c32.64$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.972,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.91,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd73…7481backed Yes36c29.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.193243.8%14 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe92e…7cfcbacked No58c29.35$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9554335%190 W · 353 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No70c28.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.881,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed No76c27.49$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8286847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes47c22.4$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9399962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.