Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36df7c764673ba02f3a0e48ece336c05dbf6cf2a5b2f02805c1dc94963ca0809
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,587
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,520
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,587 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 18c | 1,381$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.04 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 23c | 1,253$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.68 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 6c | 1,192$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.89 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 15c | 839.82$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.33 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 5c | 502.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 25c | 499.71$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.59 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 296$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 24c | 294.81$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.75 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 20c | 291.11$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2897backed Yes | 9c | 280.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 79c | 269$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.37 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 75c | 247.77$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.26 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 79c | 221.82$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.58 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 22c | 219.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.58 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 80c | 208.02$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.11 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 193.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 9c | 191.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 76c | 179$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.96 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 7c | 177.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 23c | 176.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed Yes | 7c | 157.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 79c | 127.59$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 19c | 122.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 10c | 122.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 22c | 109.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafc3…33e8backed Yes | 15c | 108.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 77c | 106.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed Yes | 17c | 102$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 70c | 97.7$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 28c | 96.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 74c | 92.84$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 21c | 84.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 24c | 83.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 18c | 80.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 79c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed Yes | 24c | 69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 77c | 65.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98c…a75ebacked Yes | 23c | 64.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 21c | 62.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 26c | 61.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 78c | 59.43$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes | 28c | 56.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e1b…3539backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…ad69backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x640c…7010backed Yes | 28c | 45.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 75c | 42.66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f90…e17fbacked No | 72c | 40.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf06b…f629backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7572…e484backed No | 73c | 36.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 75c | 35.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x404a…559ebacked No | 73c | 28.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 78c | 27.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…7f8abacked No | 78c | 27.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 74c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…cb91backed No | 76c | 14.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 76c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.