Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27f0ede60bead94a9b1402e157416383647031f573dcf6b2bde02d5f75b843c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,280
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,280 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 4c | 2,097$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.09 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 8c | 904.82$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.93 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 784.6$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.47 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 54c | 758.01$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.97 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 79c | 585.91$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.1 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 10c | 558.43$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.62 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 3c | 410.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 6c | 382.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed No | 80c | 334.68$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.91 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 15c | 283.9$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 12c | 269.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 23c | 235.68$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 67c | 219.7$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.4 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 12c | 218.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 13c | 215.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 192.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 18c | 178.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 160.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 14c | 159.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 24c | 159.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes | 12c | 158.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 145 | 24.1%35 W · 110 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…261abacked No | 77c | 152.73$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 151$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 149.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.96 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 20c | 140.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x340c…f130backed Yes | 23c | 124.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 120.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 118.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 34c | 114.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…2bfcbacked No | 73c | 109.88$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 55c | 107.53$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.67 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 107.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 70c | 97.9$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.32 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 59c | 93.93$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.61 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 18c | 93.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 17c | 83.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked Yes | 27c | 82.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 14c | 73.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 44c | 62.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 47c | 52.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29bc…e100backed No | 77c | 51.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Yes | 40c | 49.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43d1…a942backed No | 73c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 75cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 61c | 41.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…b4dabacked No | 77c | 41.36$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 54c | 40.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 44c | 33.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca06…b2c4backed No | 77c | 33.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 77c | 31.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 49c | 31.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed Yes | 50c | 27.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf29e…1352backed No | 77c | 19.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.