Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a81a19c30fa7a60205b20b472174ee1ffb41dedca7c0ace7f96e4c0d2d69618
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,131
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,931
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,131 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 2c | 1,351$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 41c | 971.14$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.45 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 4c | 883.76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 784.6$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.22 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 770.35$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.37 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 10c | 750$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.1 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 748.77$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.92 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 54c | 651.84$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.92 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 17c | 629.37$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.65 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 31c | 610.4$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.67 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 22c | 561.6$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.56 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed No | 66c | 551.57$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.19 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 540.09$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 22c | 521.18$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.04 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 35c | 514.56$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.8 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 44c | 420.64$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.24 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 35c | 378.45$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.09 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 18c | 363.82$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 328.53$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.54 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 65c | 320$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.14 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked No | 59c | 318.94$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.74 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 68c | 313.83$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.36 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 312.82$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.36 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 55c | 302.44$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 39c | 300$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.93 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 38c | 296.26$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.47 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 7c | 270$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42bc…e5fdbacked No | 73c | 257.42$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 28c | 255.44$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.73 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 76c | 231.95$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.15 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…559fbacked Yes | 28c | 215$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.95 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed No | 62c | 200.74$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.65 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed No | 7c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 60c | 195.05$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.54 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 189$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.19 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 67c | 180.97$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.18 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 51c | 179.94$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.39 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 46c | 171.24$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.26 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 69c | 164.38$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.97 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed No | 73c | 161.14$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.74 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 64c | 157.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.39 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 157.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.76 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 50c | 153.92$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.73 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 69c | 143.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.06 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Yes | 44c | 139.24$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.46 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 17c | 133$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.39 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 33c | 129.16$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.94 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 125.13$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.59 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 125$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 49c | 118$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.79 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 17c | 115.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.01 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 34c | 115$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.56 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 69c | 107$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.74 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 30c | 106.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 43c | 105$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 105$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.85 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 36c | 100.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b6…92d5backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 63cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.24 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 26c | 96.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.92 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 94.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x340c…f130backed Yes | 36c | 92.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.43 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 29c | 91.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked No | 42c | 86.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 36c | 82.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.64 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 21c | 82.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.4 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 33c | 81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.33 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 66c | 78.65$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.91 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…4ea8backed Yes | 42c | 75.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.76 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 53c | 75.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.34 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked No | 64c | 75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed No | 72c | 74.64$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.42 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 43c | 69.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.63 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 28c | 65.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffd…1e7cbacked No | 76c | 65.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 32c | 63.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.14 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 47c | 59.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b6…cc7bbacked Yes | 23c | 59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 72c | 56.67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 33c | 54.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.61 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…d63cbacked No | 63c | 51.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed No | 41c | 51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00ad…4171backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 43c | 49.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…b52abacked Yes | 60c | 47.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 44c | 47.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 66c | 47.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 32c | 46.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 37c | 46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x658e…2914backed No | 65c | 43.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked No | 47c | 42.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 55c | 40.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.