Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc262ad5b3080215798478d80186aa53c8bc9bcece4dde9a3ce7812f52f8f396
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,292
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,292 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 32c | 705.95$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.55 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 40c | 668.62$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.52 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 514.1$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.31 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 37c | 499.51$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.97 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 63c | 446.56$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.76 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 431.06$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.36 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 34c | 413.65$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.64 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 66c | 396.6$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.84 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 395.14$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.56 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 347.59$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 39c | 319.38$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.56 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 28c | 317.82$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.81 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Yes | 39c | 285$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.9 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72ec…ec9bbacked Yes | 37c | 266.52$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 248.2$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 42c | 247.42$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.71 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 61c | 241.94$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.14 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 66c | 241.92$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.17 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 65c | 230.47$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.66 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 67c | 223.38$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.72 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 212.97$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.13 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 203.79$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.55 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 35c | 192.8$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.67 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 166$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.05 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 62c | 164.27$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.69 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 157.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 64c | 153.31$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.61 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 37c | 151.64$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.11 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 37c | 148.37$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.16 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 128.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 24c | 125.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 32c | 120.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 40c | 111.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.54 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 28c | 109.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 41c | 107.26$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 64c | 101.83$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed No | 68c | 100.94$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 38c | 99.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked No | 60c | 99.39$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 17c | 95.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 65c | 95$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 38c | 92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 40c | 90.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 90$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 87.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 31c | 85.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 40c | 83.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 41c | 81.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe62c…37c5backed Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbce1…712bbacked No | 63c | 79.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 26c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 73c | 71.93$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6122…7b8fbacked No | 69c | 71.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 39c | 71.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 39c | 71.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 64c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x290e…1e65backed No | 63c | 68.91$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 34c | 67.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed No | 77c | 65.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 67c | 63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 19c | 62.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 26c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 40c | 57.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked Yes | 36c | 56.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes | 39c | 55.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 38c | 54.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x328c…8fabbacked No | 60c | 53.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00ad…4171backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 26c | 49.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 37c | 49.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 61c | 49.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 25c | 46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 45.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked No | 69c | 43.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 40c | 42.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed Yes | 37c | 41.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x658e…2914backed No | 75c | 40.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf06b…f629backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a68…13f0backed Yes | 39c | 38.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 65c | 33.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 33.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a85…651fbacked No | 61c | 31.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7faa…c757backed No | 62c | 31.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea0…8849backed No | 75c | 30.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.