TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,299
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,022

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,299 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfbd8…4027backed No50c466.4$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.1735258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No50c382.94$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.2921844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed Yes48c340.17$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.188636%31 W · 55 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes72c320.9$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.8314842.6%63 W · 85 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8882…03fbbacked Yes44c311.62$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.625827.6%16 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-31.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x68db…44f0backed Yes47c263.55$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.463231.3%10 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-28.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes46c255.58$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13711636.2%42 W · 74 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No30c219$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.0139952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes38c200.9$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.99337.6%35 W · 58 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa0d…8c4dbacked Yes41c200$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.122623.1%6 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9da…f9debacked Yes78c178.46$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.761729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-43.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3290…53cbbacked Yes45c170.96$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.769020%18 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes61c161.62$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.555030%15 W · 35 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-35.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No44c159.79$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.8512055%66 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No53c158.52$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.716834.5%58 W · 110 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No22c157.13$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.111647.4%55 W · 61 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d02…704cbacked Yes46c154.67$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.75728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-40.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3721…3abebacked Yes53c152.67$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.322634.6%9 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick27cpaid-5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ecc…c745backed No47c140.85$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.662161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+32.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9ea2…cd1dbacked Yes37c136.22$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.323828.9%11 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes49c133.5$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.666330.2%19 W · 44 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No53c128.52$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.7939414%55 W · 339 L-71.9wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-73.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes39c122.36$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.9327521.8%60 W · 215 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No15c120$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1826632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No26c117.2$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.316755.1%92 W · 75 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No54c109.32$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.654266.7%28 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No35c108.98$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0940648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No15c108.8$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1914521.4%31 W · 114 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No44c108.77$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4144428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes42c108.68$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.7418638.2%71 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No59c104.4$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.523459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5812816.4%21 W · 107 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+67.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes45c97$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.3546330.2%140 W · 323 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No55c97$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.352347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No56c90$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4315766.2%104 W · 53 L+0.5wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No58c87.63$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8332354.2%175 W · 148 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x188a…9fafbacked No54c84.15$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.54966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca06…b2c4backed Yes46c82.36$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.36580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes43c81$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.175749.1%28 W · 29 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes40c80$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.6716738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes41c75.32$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.6439231.9%125 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x035b…c6ddbacked No54c74.6$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402352.2%12 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick59cpaid+15.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed No55c73.8$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7713357.1%76 W · 57 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes42c70.1$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.444138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes38c70$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.25837.9%22 W · 36 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51f0…186cbacked Yes43c69.77$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.771040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes47c63.32$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.415149%25 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes45c62.46$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.4612640.5%51 W · 75 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No58c60$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.836055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8370…e1efbacked Yes45c60$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334233.3%14 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes47c60$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.817345.1%78 W · 95 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c70…34c4backed No49c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.41758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+36.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3bf9…1ffabacked No50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick56cpaid-66.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes41c60$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.44146.3%19 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d69…9f70backed Yes50c59.09$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.71450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No45c58.89$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3314954.4%81 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No56c57.57$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3234354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No50c57.02$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4316450.6%83 W · 81 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No20c54.8$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0315954.1%86 W · 73 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1e7…8ffbbacked Yes46c53.89$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.892437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+7.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1d57…11f8backed Yes42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294100%4 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+151.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfea5…ee06backed Yes47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.51353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+107.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2dbb…f7ffbacked No65c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid+4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes45c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.55646.4%26 W · 30 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes42c47.61$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6112238.5%47 W · 75 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No50c46.42$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3414753.7%79 W · 68 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No57c46$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1826355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes39c45.83$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.832646.2%12 W · 14 L+3.4wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+32.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb496…2657backed No60c45.52$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.11250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No57c44.46$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1614467.4%97 W · 47 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No54c44.18$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6532748.6%159 W · 168 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11fc…8262backed Yes47c44$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.322544%11 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb04…8b26backed Yes46c43.91$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.91650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd090…3bc5backed Yes48c41.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.672100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+67.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked No56c41$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.964240.5%17 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No50c40.06$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204551.1%23 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+22.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c70…edf3backed No59c40$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+22.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe590…a5d4backed Yes46c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick34cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45d7…f207backed No61c39.78$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.19333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-47.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57d2…0789backed Yes50c39.14$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.57366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+41.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes38c39$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.9916934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes48c37.34$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.3418158%105 W · 76 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes41c37$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.676330.2%19 W · 44 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f1c…ebffbacked No56c36.9$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.752454.2%13 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes44c36$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.164233.3%14 W · 28 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No46c35.85$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6414553.8%78 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6cad…4f78backed Yes41c35.34$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No61c32.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010640.6%43 W · 63 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b92…ddcdbacked Yes39c31.57$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.26540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb074…9fb3backed Yes36c31$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.842650%13 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2429…02d9backed No47c31$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.542152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No56c30.68$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0613155.7%73 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7f3…52d8backed No58c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.41861.1%11 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes49c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.451735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes36c29.97$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.188235.4%29 W · 53 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes40c29.57$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7410837%40 W · 68 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No57c27.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.956556.9%37 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f33…da59backed No48c27.08$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83bb…b01fbacked Yes46c27.05$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.561457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3580…714ebacked No61c25.81$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.84250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+22%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.