World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4dda9642970c0b339577c949aeb2057c12eee1c1ce62f5338ed7023dac525214
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,653
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,117
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,653 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 36c | 659.44$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.47 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 35c | 540.18$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.62 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 398.4$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.52 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 63c | 390.66$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.54 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 36c | 295.99$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.27 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 49c | 252.77$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.99 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Yes | 33c | 227.22$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.93 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 35c | 221$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.17 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 44c | 201.17$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.29 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed Yes | 43c | 199.21$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.36 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 53c | 189.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 34c | 186.44$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b2…a6dabacked Yes | 19c | 182.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed No | 65c | 171.27$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.94 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 43c | 159.38$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.11 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 39c | 155.89$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.92 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd7…b347backed No | 67c | 149.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 69c | 147.25$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…fd39backed No | 70c | 143.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.26 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 65c | 135.17$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.72 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked No | 53c | 129$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.51 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 127$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 60c | 119.66$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.25 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 36c | 119$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 54c | 113$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.07 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 112.47$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 61c | 111.82$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.61 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19cb…a867backed Yes | 18c | 111.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 109.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 30c | 105.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 65c | 98$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca06…b2c4backed Yes | 31c | 96.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 38c | 95.39$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 90$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 56c | 87$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked No | 61c | 81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed Yes | 24c | 77.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 68c | 77.89$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 53c | 76.88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 29c | 76.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf949…5643backed Yes | 13c | 74.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 74.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 61c | 71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 17c | 68.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 57c | 68.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 31c | 65.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 28c | 65.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 60.45$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d69…9f70backed Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 66c | 57.86$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 53 | 83%44 W · 9 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 57.55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 52c | 56.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 31c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 26c | 53.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 57c | 52.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 25c | 51.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…1935backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf3…ca4abacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 29c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 70c | 49.89$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 63c | 48.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 70c | 48.11$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 68c | 44.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 68c | 44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 59c | 42.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 53c | 40.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…ac46backed No | 49c | 40.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +91%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 54c | 39.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83bb…b01fbacked Yes | 54c | 39.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 34c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 36.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 79c | 36.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 36.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf295…667abacked Yes | 51c | 35.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed No | 76c | 35.93$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb838…f5d1backed Yes | 59c | 35.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 48c | 35.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1c…ebffbacked Yes | 58c | 34.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa614…6ef7backed Yes | 30c | 33.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ed…6d6ebacked Yes | 61c | 33.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc8…7b89backed No | 63c | 31.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…4cdebacked No | 70c | 30.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 68cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6961…511bbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 78cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…8f53backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked Yes | 42c | 28.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…2a0abacked Yes | 38c | 26.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x780d…3e2dbacked No | 74c | 25.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 72c | 23.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 72c | 22.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…9c28backed Yes | 49c | 22.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.