World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf645455112efef1c627ad3d7c2a3a634c743d9a7e8da5d66ed9c14aaef46c6b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,031
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,031 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ea2…cd1dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,119$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.98 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbf…aa75backed Yes | 23c | 906.78$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.75 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0d…8c4dbacked Yes | 18c | 440.61$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.64 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 12c | 390.81$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.96 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 14c | 381.17$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.06 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 21c | 331.73$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 11c | 316.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 17c | 237.07$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 209.8$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.27 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 198.43$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 16c | 192.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 169.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…53cbbacked Yes | 14c | 163.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 90 | 20%18 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 156.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 11c | 132$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 80c | 125.8$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 21c | 118.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 18c | 115.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 80c | 109.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 19c | 106$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 100.65$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 100.32$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 17c | 99.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 23c | 99.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed No | 69c | 94.64$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 23c | 93.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1195…e17fbacked Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 26c | 79.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed No | 77c | 77.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 30c | 75.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ed…6d6ebacked Yes | 33c | 71.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 19c | 68.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 78c | 64.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d072backed No | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 30.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 87 | 75.9%66 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…2407backed No | 77c | 29.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 68c | 23.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 77c | 22.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4634…44adbacked No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 73cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 24 | 87.5%21 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 72cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.