Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30da513534c1eb76a5eb0e111661ed3ff02097d60bf0bab754d960dea7d76ba7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,234
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,264
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,234 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 40c | 691.61$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.68 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 21c | 348.9$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.27 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd26…7de1backed Yes | 13c | 313.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 26c | 256.61$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.09 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x733e…0a36backed Yes | 20c | 252.69$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 5c | 251$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 80c | 242$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 32c | 238.6$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.35 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 29c | 216.37$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.49 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 45c | 209.95$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.83 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 203.62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 66c | 180.49$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.9 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 36c | 170.49$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.03 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 69c | 169.57$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.85 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 156.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 154.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 45c | 151.22$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.14 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 77c | 143.17$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 60c | 140.97$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.95 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 61c | 137.06$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.09 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 130.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 130.9$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 40c | 128.47$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.98 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 80c | 125.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…3561backed Yes | 26c | 120$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 24c | 119$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…443bbacked Yes | 33c | 114.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 64c | 99.98$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 69c | 96.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 76c | 96.34$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1840…03b1backed Yes | 34c | 95.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd036…4b27backed Yes | 23c | 91.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fe…818ebacked Yes | 19c | 90$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 78c | 87.26$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 76c | 85.46$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 25c | 79.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 77c | 74.37$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 77c | 72$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…b752backed Yes | 29c | 69.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 58c | 68.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…3884backed Yes | 23c | 64.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 21c | 63.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…6ab4backed No | 75c | 62.89$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 30c | 61.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 61$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 27c | 60.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked Yes | 26c | 56.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 69c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be9…446ebacked Yes | 31c | 53.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 64c | 52.29$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…32a3backed Yes | 24c | 50.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 23c | 49.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 29c | 49.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 30c | 49.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 49.18$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 31c | 44.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 42.96$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 60c | 41.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 35c | 40.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 30c | 39.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 56c | 39.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 52c | 37.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 68c | 37.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38aa…53a6backed Yes | 30c | 35.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 78c | 35.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…af8bbacked Yes | 32c | 34.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 39c | 31.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd521…1889backed No | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 29.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 64c | 29.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…6083backed No | 66c | 27.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 75c | 26.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 72c | 26.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 44c | 25.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c000backed No | 79c | 25.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c33…f910backed Yes | 44c | 25.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed No | 65c | 24.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 62c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 22.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 21.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…99b9backed No | 69c | 20.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 72c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked No | 69c | 20.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94c0…a805backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on May 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C or higher on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.