Asian League · resolved market
Kyōto Sanga FC vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4ea2919221be1d080989bd3e2089975b469c52d9d0641ae862bb69297450860
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,456
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,564
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,456 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 44c | 12,568$5,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,051.84 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 55c | 7,763$4,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,264.98 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 48c | 1,160$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.42 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Over | 47c | 1,100$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517 | 285 | 32.3%92 W · 193 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b6…43d6backed Over | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Under | 58c | 999.99$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 810.76$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.53 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 57c | 784.64$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.31 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 42c | 699.99$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.99 | 174 | 40.2%70 W · 104 L | -12.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4789…994abacked Over | 76c | 655.41$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 75cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 47c | 616.6$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.48 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…4ddbbacked Over | 60c | 579.97$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.98 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d960backed Under | 54c | 501.96$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 50c | 492.86$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.15 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97dc…d8a5backed Over | 64c | 453.13$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28e2…d3abbacked Under | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.67 | 68 | 19.1%13 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 42c | 406.49$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.11 | 157 | 72%113 W · 44 L | +33.9wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf4…952ebacked Over | 57c | 395.69$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 58c | 360.68$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.81 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 56c | 334.88$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.02 | 304 | 64.8%197 W · 107 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 46c | 326.09$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x690d…70adbacked Under | 55c | 313.48$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d4…ad01backed Under | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Over | 59c | 300$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed26…6282backed Over | 62c | 250$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 51c | 203.55$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.18 | 215 | 74.4%160 W · 55 L | +45.1wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…30b5backed Over | 37c | 186.96$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 246 | 54.1%133 W · 113 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 63c | 171.77$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 120 | 74.2%89 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 59c | 149$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.09 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 334 | 52.7%176 W · 158 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 46c | 143.75$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.51 | 345 | 60%207 W · 138 L | +49.3wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed Under | 11c | 132$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.04 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…0fddbacked Over | 24c | 125.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 37c | 115.05$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.77 | 693 | 52.2%362 W · 331 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 44c | 110.61$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.86 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…01c6backed Under | 38c | 102.76$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.71 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c25…6bbcbacked Over | 49c | 102.61$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.66 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa529…677ebacked Over | 69c | 101.45$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…bb61backed Over | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27d3…0764backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Over | 41c | 83.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 61c | 75.18$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.86 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Over | 56c | 69.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf94c…8a42backed Under | 25c | 68.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b53…95c4backed Over | 41c | 60.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…3c59backed Over | 41c | 55.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Over | 61c | 55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 76c | 51.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…0bb1backed Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -7.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -43%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2d…d35bbacked Over | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4691…2a8abacked Over | 43c | 45.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Over | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 188 | 38.8%73 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 42c | 42.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 375 | 62.7%235 W · 140 L | +61.4wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Over | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…b01fbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e27…d603backed Under | 55c | 39.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc78a…fae0backed Over | 60c | 36.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…0cdfbacked Over | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9355…038dbacked Over | 46c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ee…4461backed Over | 49c | 27.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 42c | 24.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 395 | 61.8%244 W · 151 L | +56.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Over | 78c | 22.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca3…ec90backed Over | 74c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x651c…1084backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 75c | 17.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7983…c138backed Over | 58c | 17.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e91cbacked Over | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | -8.5wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 1.5this page
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 2.5Under won
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 3.5Under won
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Kyōto Sanga FC (-1.5)V-Varen Nagasaki won
- Spread: Kyōto Sanga FC (-2.5)V-Varen Nagasaki won
- Spread: V-Varen Nagasaki (-1.5)Kyōto Sanga FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.