Asian League · resolved market
Spread: Kyōto Sanga FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7adb2df701d9d740b9b3ae4c4467940c2cd6a69470e482b125d1393574539c39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- V-Varen Nagasakiof Kyōto Sanga FC, V-Varen Nagasaki
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,826
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,667
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,826 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed V-Varen Nagasaki | 78c | 703.98$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.21 | 5,963 | 46%2,744 W · 3,219 L | +46.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e2…d3abbacked Kyōto Sanga FC | 23c | 434.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 68 | 19.1%13 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Kyōto Sanga FC | 27c | 414.8$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.85 | 1,080 | 41.7%450 W · 630 L | -15.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Kyōto Sanga FC | 18c | 327.88$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.02 | 158 | 72.2%114 W · 44 L | +34.3wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +64%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed V-Varen Nagasaki | 72c | 326.89$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.85 | 2,520 | 39.8%1,002 W · 1,518 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…ccf6backed Kyōto Sanga FC | 23c | 210.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61a1…1307backed Kyōto Sanga FC | 16c | 119.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Kyōto Sanga FC | 23c | 86.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked V-Varen Nagasaki | 75c | 82.65$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 1,319 | 56.7%748 W · 571 L | +64.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked V-Varen Nagasaki | 74c | 74.65$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 377 | 59.4%224 W · 153 L | +12.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x466c…f8e3backed Kyōto Sanga FC | 24c | 73.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb676…2dbbbacked Kyōto Sanga FC | 23c | 65.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa06…74c3backed V-Varen Nagasaki | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 74cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed V-Varen Nagasaki | 70c | 55.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Kyōto Sanga FC | 22c | 53.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed V-Varen Nagasaki | 75c | 48.12$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 300 | 49.7%149 W · 151 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Kyōto Sanga FC | 24c | 45.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 207 | 69.6%144 W · 63 L | +31.9wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5bba…c7d3backed Kyōto Sanga FC | 25c | 45.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked V-Varen Nagasaki | 77c | 15.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kyōto Sanga FC (-1.5)this page
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 1.5Under won
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 2.5Under won
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 3.5Under won
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Kyōto Sanga FC (-2.5)V-Varen Nagasaki won
- Spread: V-Varen Nagasaki (-1.5)Kyōto Sanga FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.