Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x431061e56b2d19d7311c6fdfe11dcffdaebc253b23550c2acdbf7a631e90720e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Manchester United FCof Manchester United FC, Aston Villa FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,521
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,521 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16c7…3931backed Manchester United FC | 30c | 6,023$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,223.02 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Aston Villa FC | 54c | 4,216$2,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,281.57 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Manchester United FC | 30c | 1,441$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,004.38 | 160 | 24.4%39 W · 121 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Manchester United FC | 33c | 976$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Aston Villa FC | 67c | 898.32$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.21 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Aston Villa FC | 66c | 880.21$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.23 | 517 | 50.1%259 W · 258 L | +19.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f5…c161backed Manchester United FC | 26c | 769.23$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.23 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…5d07backed Manchester United FC | 34c | 556.18$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.18 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Aston Villa FC | 66c | 504.19$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.76 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…2b04backed Manchester United FC | 33c | 499.97$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.98 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Aston Villa FC | 68c | 450$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 300 | 59.7%179 W · 121 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Manchester United FC | 34c | 444.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.12 | 327 | 37.6%123 W · 204 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Manchester United FC | 34c | 441.47$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.47 | 192 | 44.3%85 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Manchester United FC | 33c | 430$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.1 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…99adbacked Aston Villa FC | 74c | 405.66$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed Manchester United FC | 33c | 328.7$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.53 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Manchester United FC | 28c | 319.17$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.03 | 223 | 35.4%79 W · 144 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4948…08bdbacked Manchester United FC | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.03 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Aston Villa FC | 67c | 300$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Aston Villa FC | 67c | 298.47$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Aston Villa FC | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +9.2wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfabf…231cbacked Manchester United FC | 33c | 260.03$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.22 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb30c…6cefbacked Manchester United FC | 36c | 223.56$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.56 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Manchester United FC | 33c | 215$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.05 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Aston Villa FC | 66c | 162.14$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.07 | 524 | 54.2%284 W · 240 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Manchester United FC | 32c | 156.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.16 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df4…4eacbacked Aston Villa FC | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 51cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x438c…481abacked Aston Villa FC | 69c | 145.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3542…24f0backed Aston Villa FC | 69c | 145.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Manchester United FC | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.86 | 286 | 33.9%97 W · 189 L | +19.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1691…f891backed Aston Villa FC | 68c | 136.47$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Manchester United FC | 32c | 127.95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.01 | 1,224 | 42.3%518 W · 706 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Aston Villa FC | 66c | 126.97$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.8 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Manchester United FC | 34c | 110$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.6 | 301 | 43.9%132 W · 169 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Manchester United FC | 33c | 107.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.04 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1c…a9a5backed Manchester United FC | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993a…09fcbacked Manchester United FC | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Manchester United FC | 31c | 97.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.68 | 891 | 52.9%471 W · 420 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…e9d3backed Manchester United FC | 34c | 88.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.49 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +29%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd9…3dadbacked Aston Villa FC | 68c | 76.4$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.95 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.38per pick | 50cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed6d…d729backed Aston Villa FC | 69c | 73.37$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed5d…8a22backed Aston Villa FC | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Manchester United FC | 70c | 63.6$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Manchester United FC | 31c | 61.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 515 | 16.1%83 W · 432 L | -49.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Manchester United FC | 33c | 59.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.86 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Manchester United FC | 37c | 50.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 408 | 21.8%89 W · 319 L | -53.7wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Aston Villa FC | 67c | 49.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 189 | 63%119 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed Aston Villa FC | 71c | 47.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 220 | 40.5%89 W · 131 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Manchester United FC | 32c | 45.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 228 | 34.2%78 W · 150 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Manchester United FC | 79c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 413 | 43.3%179 W · 234 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8614…ffc6backed Manchester United FC | 34c | 40.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x147a…2c7cbacked Aston Villa FC | 68c | 37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd6…24c5backed Manchester United FC | 33c | 35.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Aston Villa FC | 56c | 30.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 611 | 43.7%267 W · 344 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Aston Villa FC | 67c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 373 | 42.6%159 W · 214 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56bd…e58dbacked Aston Villa FC | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…8639backed Aston Villa FC | 69c | 29.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd25c…fe19backed Aston Villa FC | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Aston Villa FC | 49c | 29.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 194 | 55.2%107 W · 87 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd082…1375backed Aston Villa FC | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 72cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Aston Villa FC | 69c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2730…d178backed Aston Villa FC | 72c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Aston Villa FC | 67c | 28.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52ab…1070backed Aston Villa FC | 68c | 23.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed Aston Villa FC | 67c | 22.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Aston Villa FC | 72c | 21.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…1ddcbacked Aston Villa FC | 67c | 20.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 44 | 77.3%34 W · 10 L | +10.2wins | +0.23per pick | 54cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x363e…ae45backed Manchester United FC | 78c | 20.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Aston Villa FC | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 412 | 60.2%248 W · 164 L | +22.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe293…d3edbacked Aston Villa FC | 70c | 19.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Aston Villa FC | 72c | 18.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb17…32b2backed Aston Villa FC | 68c | 17.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…d370backed Aston Villa FC | 68c | 16.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c5…f857backed Aston Villa FC | 68c | 15.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef1…352ebacked Aston Villa FC | 72c | 14.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)this page
- Manchester United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Manchester United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Manchester United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Manchester United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Manchester United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)Manchester United FC won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5)Manchester United FC won
- Spread: Manchester United FC (-2.5)Aston Villa FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.